174
FXUS02 KWBC 131904
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
VALID 12Z THU OCT 16 2025 - 12Z MON OCT 20 2025
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE ON THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK, FAVORING STRONG TROUGHING IN THE WEST
THAT WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEKEND. BY THE SAT-MON
PERIOD, THE GFS/GEFS WERE GENERALLY QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF/ECMWF
EPS AND ECMWF- AIFS/ECMWF-EPS-AIFS BY ABOUT 12 HOURS WHICH IS WELL
WITHIN TOLERANCE FOR THAT TIME RANGE. FOR THE FRONTS/PRESSURES,
UTILIZED A MULTI- MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF
THE FORECAST BEFORE TRENDING TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IN
ORDER TO MAINTAIN BETTER DEPICTION OF THE FEATURES VS A BLEND OF
THE ENSEMBLES. FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS, THE NBM WAS
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
NO AREAS WERE NOTED IN THE DAY 4-5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS AS
THE QPF ACROSS THE CONUS WAS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
LINGERING UPPER TROUGHING IN ATLANTIC CANADA (TIED TO THE CURRENT
COASTAL STORM) STILL SUPPORTS CONTINUED UNSETTLED/WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THAT WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.
THE TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE WEST
WILL PROMOTE COOL AND SHOWERY (WITH SOME SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS)
CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO START, WITH
BROADER LIGHT RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS POISED TO
TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. AS THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE PLAINS, MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF IT THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY WHERE RAINFALL
COULD INCREASE BY SATURDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE (AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT).
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT -- WELL INTO THE
70S/80S FRIDAY FROM THE CORN BELT TO THE OZARKS WITH 90S ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS.
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ENTER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN AND HIGHER
MOUNTAIN SNOW THAT WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN COOL OVER IDAHO SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEVADA AND
NORCAL.
FRACASSO
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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