866
FXUS01 KWBC 131959
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
VALID 00Z TUE OCT 14 2025 - 00Z THU OCT 16 2025
...COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW TO THE WEST,
ESPECIALLY CALIFORNIA...
COASTAL FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BRINGS PERSISTENT AND
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS TO COASTAL REGIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION. RIP
CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ALSO CONTINUE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. HIGH WINDS
ARE LESSENING ALREADY AS THE LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY, WITH ONLY
WIND ADVISORIES LEFT FOR CAPE COD AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET. HOWEVER, COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES CONTINUE
INTO THIS (MONDAY) EVENING BEFORE EXPIRING AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DECREASES.
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST TONIGHT AND PUSH INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM. THESE FEATURES
WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION AS AMPLE MOISTURE INTERACTS
WITH THEM. MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/4) TO SLIGHT RISKS (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH FLOODING ARE IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AS THE MOISTURE PLUME MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS. THE EMBEDDED SLIGHT RISKS OVER THE TRANSVERSE
RANGE/PENINSULAR RANGE OF CALIFORNIA SHOW AREAS WHERE HEAVIER
RAINFALL TOTALS MAY OCCUR AND WHERE BURN SCARS MAY CAUSE
PARTICULARLY HIGHER RISKS OF FLOODING. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
COULD ALSO OCCUR PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. FARTHER INLAND
INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA, PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH 1-2 FEET OF SNOW LIKELY AND SNOW RATES OF
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL TO 5500-7000
FEET IN PARTS OF CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS THE LOW PIVOTS EAST, ALONG
WITH LOWER ELEVATION SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY.
FARTHER EAST, MOIST INFLOW THAT HAS SOME CONNECTION WITH
DISSIPATED EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. THROUGH TONIGHT, SLIGHT RISKS (LEVEL
2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE IN PLACE FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA/SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO,
WITH A SURROUNDING MARGINAL RISK. A MARGINAL RISK LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS NEW MEXICO. ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH WINDS AND HAIL, IS POSSIBLE IN
SIMILAR AREAS. ELSEWHERE, RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW OUT WEST WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THERE. ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY, COOL MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAY SET RECORDS ACROSS CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S (LOCALLY 90S IN TEXAS) ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY, AND NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN
THE EAST SHOULD MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER FROM THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
TATE
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