798
FXCA20 KWBC 141859
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 14 OCTOBER 2025 AT 1900 UTC:
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN:
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE AREA,
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF BAHAMAS. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST, THIS WILL ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER EASTERN BAHAMAS PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD EXPECT RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AIR DOMINATING, PARTICULARLY IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING.
FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO CUBA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME PRECIPITATION
OVER EASTERN CUBA AND ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE HISPANIOLA. THIS
ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION,
ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING HISPANIOLA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND TO INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER, AND MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
OVER MEXICO, MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND
DIURNAL HEATING FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY. AN STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO YUCATAN WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
INTO THAT AREA FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY. AT MID- TO UPPER LEVELS A
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER YUCATAN WILL MOVE INTO VERACRUZ. THIS MAY
ENHANCE CONDITIONS IN THE AREA AT UPPER LEVELS, HOWEVER DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS AT LOWER LEVELS MAY LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW.
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
GUATEMALA AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY BEING MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WITH A
60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, INCLUDING NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS, A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WITH SUPPORT FROM A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE REGION FROM TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW.
OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA THE MONSOON TROUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CIRCULATION IN THE REGION THAT WILL FAVOR
ONSHORE MOISTURE INCREASE. THIS REGION IS OF INTEREST,
PARTICULARLY FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY AS AN ENHANCEMENT IN
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUPPORT FROM A MID-LEVEL TO
UPPER-TROUGH IS EXPECTED. THIS PATTERN MAY CAUSE STRONG
CONVECTION, EXPECT A MAXIMUM OF 25-50MM, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTALS.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
IN SOUTH AMERICA AN AREA OF INTEREST FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
THE WESTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA, WITH MOIST FLOW COMING FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, MAXIMUM
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 20-45MM EACH DAY.
FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY, A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA ADVECTING MOISTURE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION, AN ENHANCEMENT IN DIVERGENCE
AT UPPER LEVELS MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION.
OVER THE AMAZON REGION, CONVECTIVE INDUCED LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION,
PARTICULARLY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 15/00 15/12 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12 18/00
TW 15N 23W 25W 27W 29W 32W 34W 38W 42W
FOR THE LATEST AVAILABLE CHARTS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/INTERNATIONAL/CRB_DAY1-3.SHTML
RIVERA-TORRES...(WPC)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page