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FXUS06 KWBC 141902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE OCTOBER 14 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 20 - 24 2025
THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODELS BROADLY AGREE ON THE 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 610 DAY
PERIOD, WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS IN THE AMPLITUDE AND PHASE
OF PREDICTED WAVE FEATURES. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS,
WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL MORE HEAVILY DUE TO ITS RECENT ANOMALY CORRELATION
SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES BELOW-NORMAL MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN CANADA AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST. SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS. GENERALLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR ALASKA AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE BERING SEA. NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED
50 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. ELEVATED
CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS.
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 60 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS, AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND CONSISTENT WITH
OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE ADJACENT GULF.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE
ALEUTIANS, AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. HOWEVER,
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, BENEATH
MODESTLY ENHANCED ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, DUE
TO PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DUE TO
ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF COMBINED WITH PREDICTED FRONTAL
ACTIVITY, SUPPORTED BY MOST PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA, SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO, AND WESTERN TEXAS, AS THE MEAN PACIFIC STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA AHEAD OF
A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR HAWAII, NEAR A PREDICTED MEAN MID-LEVEL LOW.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR CERTAIN AREAS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 22 - 28 2025
DURING WEEK 2, A TRANSITION TO A LOWER-AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS NOTED, AS WEAK MEAN
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES.
FARTHER NORTH, AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE BERING SEA. NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, WITH
MODESTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF ALASKA AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA APPROACHES THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE GULF OF ALASKA. STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS PREDICTED DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
DAVIS STRAIT, SIGNALING A LIKELY TRANSITION TO A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION (NAO) PATTERN. A MID-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST IN THE
VICINITY OF HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR, SUPPORTED BY MOST TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS EASTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY OVER THE
ALEUTIANS AND THE WEST COAST OF THE MAINLAND AS THE BERING SEA TROUGH
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA LATER IN THE PERIOD.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN MORE LIKELY FOR THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN ALASKA,
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO THE OFFSETTING INFLUENCES OF WEAKLY ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW AND PREDICTED MODESTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR HAWAII, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO
PREDICTED ENHANCED LOW-AMPLITUDE PACIFIC FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, LARGELY DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP TROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD DUE TO PREDICTED MODESTLY ENHANCED EASTERLY
OR SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS ALASKA AS A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE BERING SEA
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, NEAR A PREDICTED MEAN MID-LEVEL LOW.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FORECAST, OFFSET BY A
DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN AND WEAK SIGNALS IN THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS FOR SOME AREAS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 16.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 20 - 24 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 22 - 28 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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