972
FXUS06 KWBC 181902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT OCTOBER 18 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 24 - 28 2025
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH
A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S.(CONUS) A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE CONUS. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST FOR ALASKA WITH A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED
TO RISE ACROSS THE BERING SEA DURING THE PERIOD, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
IN HAWAII, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NORTH
OF THE STATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS TODAY WITH THE
STRONGEST CHANCES IN THE PLAINS WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE TOWARDS BOTH COASTS.
THIS IS THE RESULT OF RELATIVELY STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME, CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST WHERE
TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS. ALONG THE
WEST COAST, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW,
CLOUDINESS, AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED IN MOST OF THE TOOLS. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEAST MAINLAND. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE MAIN STORY DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE THE VERY STRONG CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR 70% OR HIGHER
ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES IS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AMONGST MOST OF THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ALASKA, NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
ALASKA WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINLAND. IN HAWAII, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL IS FAVORED FOR THE
WESTERN ISLANDS WHILE NEAR-NORMAL IS FAVORED FURTHER EAST
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL TOOLS IS OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 26 - NOV 01, 2025
AT THE START OF WEEK-2 A DEEP 500-HPA TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CONVERSELY, A STRONG 500-HPA HEIGHT RIDGE IS FORECAST
OVER NORTHEAST U.S. AN AREA OF WEAK NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS
FORECAST OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE STRONG TROUGH AND RIDGE DIPOLE OVER THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA WILL DRIVE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MUCH
OF THE WEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2. HEIGHTS THEN SLOWLY RISE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SHIFTING THE STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW FURTHER NORTH BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IN ALASKA, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN BELOW-NORMAL WITH
STRONG TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, TOOLS
SUGGEST FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE BERING SEA. FOR HAWAII, POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FORECAST NORTH OF THE STATE WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES UNDERNEATH TRANSIENT RIDGING EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE ECENS AND GEFS REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED
TOOLS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT) ARE HIGHLIGHTED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. REDUCED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
U.S. TIED TO TROUGHING AND A WEAK -NAO PERSISTING. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER THE WEST DUE TO ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR ALASKA AND HAWAII IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED
FOR MUCH OF ALASKA UNDERNEATH TROUGHING, WITH HIGHER ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE ONGOING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT ACROSS THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) ARE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD BASED ON
THE 0Z ECENS AND GEFS. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AS DEPICTED IN THE 0Z
ECENS AND CMCE FAVORS AN INCREASE IN THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN PREFERRED FOR
PARTS OF NORTHEAST FURTHER DISPLACED FROM THIS FEATURE. A DRYING TREND REMAINS
FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA, WITH NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF
THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SLOPE AND THE EASTERN
ALASKAN INTERIOR WHERE WEAK PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
FAVORED. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR WESTERN HAWAII WITH NEAR-NORMAL FAVORED FURTHER
EAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS IS OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 24 - 28 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP N B MAINE A B
MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B
PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 26 - NOV 01, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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