508
FXUS01 KWBC 181950
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
349 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
VALID 00Z SUN OCT 19 2025 - 00Z TUE OCT 21 2025
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS
OF THE ARKLATEX, MID-SOUTH, OHIO VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY, REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
...TURNING COLDER AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH COASTAL AND VALLEY RAIN ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS...
AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAT SIGNALS THE EMERGENCE
OF LA NINA IS FORECAST FOR THE U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER POTENT
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NATION'S MID-SECTION AND THEN INTERACT WITH A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
INTERACTION IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST TONIGHT AND THEN THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH
FROM THE CYCLONE CENTER WILL BE PRECEDED BY AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. THE MAIN HAZARDS TO WATCH
FOR WILL INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP. IN ADDITION, STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL ALSO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS,
SOUTHERN MISSOURI, AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE RELATIVE FAST
FORWARD MOTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP LIMIT THE TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS; HOWEVER, INTENSE DOWNPOURS THAT REPEATEDLY TRACK
OVER THE SAME AREAS CAN LEAD TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE CENTER OF THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY EXIT
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE POTENT COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE
CYCLONE WILL BRING ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. AND THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE,
A SWATH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, A SQUALL LINE COULD BE SWEEPING
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EAST COAST WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AFTER THAT, THE
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
ESPECIALLY NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE SWEEPING ACROSS AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
BEHIND THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING CYCLONE IN THE EAST, STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AS A COLDER AIR MASS FROM
CANADA FILTERS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, A RAPID WARM-UP IS
FORECAST FOR THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY, SPREADING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. THIS WARM-UP WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SIGNAL THE
ARRIVAL OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH COASTAL AND VALLEY RAINS ALONG WITH
SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN SNOW ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND ACROSS IDAHO AND THEN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. MEANWHILE, THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE FOUR CORNERS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MILLER/KONG
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