081
FXUS01 KWBC 191902
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
VALID 00Z MON OCT 20 2025 - 00Z WED OCT 22 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...
...WINDY, COLDER, AND UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
UPPER MIDWEST, AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK...
...UNSEASONABLE OCTOBER WARMTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO START
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 80S AND 90S...
AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE
U.S. MAINLAND THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE EMERGENCE
OF LA NINA. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE HEADLINED BY A
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWIFTLY MOVING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG WITH A POTENT EASTWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE CYCLONE CENTER TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE RELATIVELY FAST FORWARD MOTION OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP LIMIT THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS;
HOWEVER, A SQUALL LINE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG
WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS. BY MONDAY, THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, PARTICULARLY NEW ENGLAND,
WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD MAKE FOR
AN UNSETTLED START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM, BREEZY, COOLER, AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO
THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY REBOUND ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
BEHIND THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING CYCLONE IN THE EAST, STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE BRINGING A COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF,
HOWEVER, AS WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, CENTRAL U.S., AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS HEADING INTO MONDAY. THIS WARM-UP WILL BE IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE
UPPER MIDWEST, AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH COASTAL
AND VALLEY RAINS ALONG WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FARTHER
INLAND ACROSS IDAHO AND THEN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WHILE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, UPPER
MIDWEST, AND GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TO THE SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM, BRISK WINDS DESCENDING THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL MAKE FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY WHERE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH WELL INTO THE
80S AND 90S, WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID TO LATE OCTOBER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO CHALLENGE SOME DAILY RECORDS. DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE RULE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MILLER/KONG
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