934
FXUS06 KWBC 191902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN OCTOBER 19 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 25 - 29 2025
MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IN
500-HPA ANOMALIES OVER THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH DEEP TROUGHING CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER NORTHERN CANADA.
MODELS ALSO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO EJECT OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC REMAINS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH MODELS FAVOR DEAMPLIFICATION OVER TIME.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST CHANCES IN THE PLAINS WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS BOTH COASTS. THIS IS THE RESULT OF RELATIVELY STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME,
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WHERE
TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS. ALONG THE
WEST COAST, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW,
CLOUDINESS, AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED IN MOST OF THE TOOLS. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEAST MAINLAND. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE MAIN STORY DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE THE VERY STRONG CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR 60% OR HIGHER
ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS IS A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IS BECOMING MORE FAVORED AMONGST MOST OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE, AND ARE MORE
BULLISH WITH RESPECT TO RESULTING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS MUCH OF
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS, BOTH WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST ACROSS
THEIR RESPECTIVE REGIONS. IN ALASKA, NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINLAND. IN HAWAII, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL IS
FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN ISLANDS WHILE NEAR-NORMAL IS FAVORED FURTHER EAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL TOOLS IS OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 27 - NOV 02, 2025
AT THE START OF WEEK-2 A DEEP 500-HPA TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CONVERSELY, A STRONG 500-HPA HEIGHT RIDGE IS FORECAST
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC IN
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS FAVORED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
RESULTING IN NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS
THEN SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SHIFTING THE STRONGEST ONSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST FURTHER NORTH BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IN
ALASKA, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN BELOW-NORMAL WITH STRONG TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, TOOLS SUGGEST FALLING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE BERING SEA. FOR HAWAII, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN
FORECAST NORTH OF THE STATE WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES BOTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHEASTERN CANADA PREVENTING INTRUSION OF COLD HIGH LATITUDE AIR SOUTHWARD,
AND WITH GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE ECENS AND GEFS REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED
TOOLS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) ARE HIGHLIGHTED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ARE MOSTLY BELOW 50%
ELSEWHERE IN THE CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, THE MID-ATLANTIC. AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
TIED TO TROUGHING AND LIKELY INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DUE TO ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION FROM CONTINUED PACIFIC ONSHORE FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
ALASKA AND HAWAII IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA
UNDERNEATH TROUGHING, WITH HIGHER ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO FAVOR INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER, ALTHOUGH THESE
PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
(GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT) REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AS DEPICTED IN THE 0Z ECENS AND CMCE FAVORS AN INCREASE IN
THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES, INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A DRYING TREND
REMAINS FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA, WITH BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SLOPE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA WHERE WEAK PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR WESTERN HAWAII WITH NEAR-NORMAL
FAVORED FURTHER EAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS IS OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 25 - 29 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP N N MAINE A B
MASS N N CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 27 - NOV 02, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N N
UTAH N N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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