438
FXUS06 KWBC 201903
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON OCTOBER 20 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 26 - 30 2025
MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IN
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH DEEP TROUGHING CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER NORTHERN
CANADA. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO EJECT OUT OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), EVENTUALLY SETTLING
OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC REMAINS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH MODELS FAVOR DEAMPLIFICATION OVER TIME.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS AS WELL AS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA WITH
THE STRONGEST CHANCES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
DECREASING CONFIDENCE TOWARDS BOTH COASTS. THIS IS THE RESULT OF RELATIVELY
STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND BAFFIN BAY DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND WHERE TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER
CONDITIONS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
WITH CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW, CLOUDINESS, AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION.
THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN MOST OF THE TOOLS. IN ALASKA,
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE
NORTHEAST MAINLAND. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS
HAWAII.
WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
CHANCES REMAIN ABOVE 50% FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST NORTH OF THE BAY AREA.
PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO ENHANCED FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MUCH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND MID-ATLANTIC, PARTICULARLY THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60%. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS, DUE TO ANOMALOUS
RIDGING FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. IN ALASKA, NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR THE NORTH SLOPE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. IN HAWAII, A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS EXCEPT FOR
THE BIG ISLAND, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL IS MOST LIKELY.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 28 - NOV 03, 2025
AT THE START OF WEEK-2 A DEEP 500-HPA TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CONVERSELY, A STRONG 500-HPA HEIGHT RIDGE IS FORECAST
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC IN
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS FAVORED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
RESULTING IN NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS
THEN SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SHIFTING THE STRONGEST ONSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST FURTHER NORTH BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IN
ALASKA, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN BELOW-NORMAL WITH STRONG TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, TOOLS SUGGEST FALLING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE BERING SEA. FOR HAWAII, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN
FORECAST NORTH OF THE STATE WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES BOTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEASTERN CANADA PREVENTING
INTRUSION OF COLD HIGH LATITUDE AIR SOUTHWARD, AND WITH GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE
ECENS AND GEFS REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED TOOLS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
(GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) ARE HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES, AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT ARE MOSTLY BELOW 50% ELSEWHERE IN THE
CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE, MIDDLE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST U.S., AND EVEN A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TIED TO TROUGHING AND LIKELY INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN
ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DUE TO ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
FROM CONTINUED PACIFIC ONSHORE FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR ALASKA AND
HAWAII IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA UNDERNEATH
TROUGHING, WITH HIGHER ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE STRONGLY
FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO FAVOR INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, ALTHOUGH THESE
PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
(GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) REMAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING AS DEPICTED IN THE 0Z ECENS AND CMCE FAVORS AN INCREASE IN THE ODDS
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A DRYING TREND REMAINS FORECAST
ACROSS ALASKA, WITH BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SLOPE AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA WHERE WEAK PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
FAVORED. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR WESTERN HAWAII WITH NEAR-NORMAL FAVORED FURTHER
EAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS IS OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 26 - 30 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N N
MASS N A CONN A A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 28 - NOV 03, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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