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FXUS06 KWBC 211902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE OCTOBER 21 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 27 - 31 2025
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED MEAN
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA AND LARGE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN CANADA. DAILY FORECASTS OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DEAMPLIFIES EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WHILE A SECOND TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS PREDICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST, DURING THE PERIOD.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS AS WELL AS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST, UNDER AND AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN CANADA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WHERE MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS
PREDICT COOLER CONDITIONS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, CLOUDINESS, AND PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REGION, AND ALSO CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA, THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDER NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST MAINLAND, CONSISTENT WITH MOST TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS, THE SOUTH
COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHERE DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS
INTO THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AND FOR NORTHERN MAINE,
INFLUENCED BY PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THESE REGIONS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, UNDER SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 29 - NOV 04, 2025
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A SIMILAR CIRCULATION
PATTERN FOR THE 8-14 DAY MEAN AS FOR THE 6-10 DAY MEAN, WITH MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGHS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE EASTERN CONUS RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PERSISTS THROUGH THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
IN DAILY FORECASTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS, WHILE POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AMPLIFY IN THE WEST. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE PREDICTS
LESS PERSISTENT NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS,
UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE, WITH WEAKER PROBABILITIES OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE CHANGING. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE LIKELY FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST, INFLUENCED BY THE
STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER CANADA. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CONUS, UNDER THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A PROGRESSIVE HEIGHT PATTERN.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD,
CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR ALASKA FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD CONTINUES TO
FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND SLIGHTLY FAVORS
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR MAINLAND, UNDER A
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND AND AHEAD OF
THE PREDICTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
BE FAVORED FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOST OF THE EAST, AHEAD OF A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE REGION. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY
INCREASING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 27 - 31 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N
UTAH N N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N B
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 29 - NOV 04, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA N N MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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