575
FXCA20 KWBC 221851
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 22 OCTOBER 2025 AT 1850 UTC:
THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE, EXPECT TROPICAL STORM MELISSA TO BE
THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES.
FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, PLEASE
REFER TO
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?START#CONTENTS.
THE BAHAMAS AND THE CARIBBEAN:
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TROPICAL STORM MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE TRACK, WHICH ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. A MORE WESTWARD TRACK MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION FOR
HAITI AND JAMAICA. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN REGION OF HISPANIOLA AND
JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, STARTING TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STORM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO IMPACT PUERTO RICO, AS THE STORM
WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND AN
EASTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
COASTS.
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THROUGH
TOMORROW, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE AVAILABILITY OF HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY
INCREASE, PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION, THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE.
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MEXICO AND MOST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
OVER MEXICO WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE
CENTRAL REGION OF MEXICO. SOME PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND EASTERN MEXICO DUE TO LOCAL EFFECT AND
DIURNAL HEATING AND A SERIES OF LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS. HOWEVER,
LIMITED PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY DIMINISH RAINFALL ACTIVITY. AN AREA
THAT MAY RECEIVE SOME PRECIPITATION EACH DAY IS BELIZE AND PARTS
OF GUATEMALA AND NORTHERN HONDURAS, AS A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE REGION, ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
PARTICULARLY OVER THE COAST. OTHER COUNTRIES IN CENTRAL AMERICA,
INCLUDING EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA MAY RECEIVE SOME PRECIPITATION
MOSTLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
OVER THE AREA, FAVORING ONSHORE FLOW MAINLY FROM THE PACIFIC AND
THE CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ENHANCING RAINFALL ACTIVITY
OVER THE AREA. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 25-50MM ARE EXPECTED.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA IS GOING TO
BE DOMINATED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, DIURNAL HEATING,
CONVECTIVE INDUCED TROUGHS AND LOCAL EFFECTS. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COLOMBIA, AS LONG-FETCH PACIFIC MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE REGION. AN
AREA OF INTEREST FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS THE CARIBBEAN REGION
OF COLOMBIA AND EASTERN VENEZUELA, AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES WITH PRESSURE DECREASING IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH TROPICAL
STORM MELISSA. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED FROM
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND 25-50MM FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A DRYING TENDENCY IS EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN TROPICAL SOUTH
AMERICA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 23/00 23/12 24/00 24/12 24/00 24/12 25/00
EW 15N 106W 108W 110W LOW LOW LOW LOW LOW
FOR THE LATEST AVAILABLE CHARTS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/INTERNATIONAL/CRB_DAY1-3.SHTML
RIVERA-TORRES...(WPC)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page