326
FXUS06 KWBC 221901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED OCTOBER 22 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 28 - NOV 01, 2025
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED MEAN
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA AND LARGE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN CANADA. DAILY FORECASTS OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DEAMPLIFIES EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WHILE A SECOND TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS PREDICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE OUT OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
WHILE A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST,
LEADING TO RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA, THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND, CONSISTENT WITH MOST TEMPERATURE TOOLS. NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH ONSHORE
FLOW, CLOUDINESS, AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION, AND ALSO CONSISTENT WITH
CALIBRATED MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE HIGH PLAINS, WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTH TEXAS, UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER OF THE NORTHEAST, INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
CANADA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CONUS, AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, UNDER THE PREDICTED
TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII IN THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS, THE SOUTH
COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHERE DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO CROSS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AND FOR NORTHERN MAINE,
INFLUENCED BY PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THESE REGIONS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, UNDER SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET BY
DIFFERENCES AMONG SOME TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND UNCERTAINTY
RELATED TO A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 30 - NOV 05, 2025
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A SIMILAR CIRCULATION
PATTERN FOR THE 8-14 DAY MEAN AS FOR THE 6-10 DAY MEAN, WITH PERSISTENT
AMPLIFIED TROUGHS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE EASTERN CONUS. ECMWF,
CANADIAN AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE ON PERSISTENCE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WHILE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AMPLIFY IN THE WEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS,
UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE, WITH WEAKER PROBABILITIES OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE RISING IN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST, INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER CANADA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CONUS, UNDER THE PERSISTENT TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH
THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR ALASKA FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD CONTINUES TO
FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND SLIGHTLY FAVORS
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR MAINLAND, UNDER A
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC,
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
EXPANDS NORTHWARD. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
UNDER AND AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, AHEAD
OF A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY
INCREASING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 28 - NOV 01, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N B
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 30 - NOV 05, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA N N OHIO N A KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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