646
FXCA20 KWBC 231839
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 23 OCTOBER 2025 AT 1850 UTC:
THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE, EXPECT TROPICAL STORM MELISSA TO BE
THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES.
FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, PLEASE
REFER TO
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?START#CONTENTS.
THE BAHAMAS AND THE CARIBBEAN:
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE TROPICAL
STORM MELISSA MOVING SLOWLY IN THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE, WHICH ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS HOWEVER, THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN INITIALLY SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK AND A TURNING WESTWARD
ON SATURDAY. THIS TRACK WILL LIKELY KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND EAST OF JAMAICA FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. AS THE TROPICAL STORM REMAINS OVER THAT AREA AND
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. FROM TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY A MAXIMUM AROUND 25-50MM IS EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA,
THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
TOTALS AROUND 30-60MM, AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION NEAR
75-150MM. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THROUGHOUT SUNDAY
MORNING, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEREAFTER. OVER
HISPANIOLA, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHERN HAITI IN THE TIBURON PENINSULA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A MAXIMUM ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL NEAR 75-150MM, HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
EACH DAY STARTING TODAY. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST, AND
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW WITH DEEP
MOISTURE GOING TOWARDS THE REGION.
ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IS THE BAHAMAS, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND THERE IS HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABILITY IN THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH
AN INDUCED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY IN THE AREA,
AND CAUSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY FROM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AND SOME PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED, BUT TOTALS MAY DECREASE.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MEXICO AND MOST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
IN THE AREA. SOME PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER MEXICO AND ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. OVER
BELIZE AND EASTERN HONDURAS, AND NICARAGUA PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED EACH DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA, AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN
WILL BE ENHANCED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY DUE TO LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
STORM MELISSA.
ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE AREA. IN
ADDITION, WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA IN THE CARIBBEAN,
LOWERING PRESSURE WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS,
INCREASING MOISTURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE AREA THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
IN SOUTH AMERICA, A SEASONAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY BE DUE TO LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS, ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, THE DIURNAL CYCLE,AND LOCAL
EFFECTS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA, AS LONG-FETCH PACIFIC MOISTURE FEEDS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LIKELY OVER OTHER REGIONS
OF COLOMBIA AS DEEP MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE REGION AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL PROMOTE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 24/00 24/12 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12 27/00
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