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FXUS06 KWBC 231902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU OCTOBER 23 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 29 - NOV 02, 2025
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED MEAN
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA AND LARGE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN CANADA. DAILY FORECASTS OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS PREDICT THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS TO AMPLIFY AROUND DAY 7 AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE A RIDGE AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WEST AMPLIFIES, LEADING TO RISING
HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE WESTERN
GREAT PLAINS, UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE, WHILE NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON WHERE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
RISING. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MAINE, INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG RIDGE OVER CANADA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CONUS, INCLUDING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE
SOUTHEAST, AND THE MID-ATLANTIC, UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH
THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND PARTS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND, WHERE DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, AHEAD OF A TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED RIDGE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET BY
DIFFERENCES AMONG SOME TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND UNCERTAINTY
RELATED TO A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 31 - NOV 06, 2025
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A SIMILAR CIRCULATION
PATTERN FOR THE 8-14 DAY MEAN AS FOR THE 6-10 DAY MEAN, WITH PERSISTENT
AMPLIFIED TROUGHS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE EASTERN CONUS. ECMWF,
CANADIAN AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE ON PERSISTENCE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MOST OF THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WHILE POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES AMPLIFY IN THE WEST.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS, UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE, WITH WEAKER PROBABILITIES OVER THE
NORTHWEST WHERE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE RISING IN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MAINE, INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER
CANADA. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN CONUS, UNDER THE TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
HAWAII IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR ALASKA FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD CONTINUES TO
FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA,
EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND SLIGHTLY FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN MAINLAND, UNDER A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST EXPANDS NORTHWARD.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
EASTWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN GULF COAST, UNDER AND
AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC, EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST, AHEAD OF A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 29 - NOV 02, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA N B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 31 - NOV 06, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA N N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B B NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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