126
FXUS01 KWBC 240726
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VALID 12Z FRI OCT 24 2025 - 12Z SUN OCT 26 2025
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BRING A FLASH FLOOD AND
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...A PACIFIC SYSTEM ACCOMPANIED BY AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING LOWER ELEVATION HEAVY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO NOT ONLY CONTINUE BUT
EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. PLENTIFUL
MOIST GULF RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO FUEL HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH RAIN
RATES AS HIGH AS 2" PER HOUR. EMBEDDED UPPER ENERGIES WILL HELP TO
SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS, POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED,
INCREASING THE RISK FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL. SLIGHT RISKS
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) HAVE BEEN OUTLINED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FROM THE
ARKLATEX/EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
FOR THE THREAT OF SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS
THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL GIVEN THE GENERALLY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, THE WARM, MOIST AIR AND
APPROACHING UPPER-LOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED SLIGHT RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
(LEVEL 2/5) FOR WESTERN TO CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SATURDAY FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
TO THE WEST, AN INFLUX OF MOIST PACIFIC AIR/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER HEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY COASTAL/LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
RANGES AND CASCADES. SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW IS ALSO
FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES,
ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR FLOWS INLAND BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND SNOW-LEVELS DROP. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES INTO SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES INLAND, WITH LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY
CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN FOR HIGHER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY, THOUGH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE, LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO FRIDAY AS COOL POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
MOVES OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS. THE REST OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURE-WISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST
COAST FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID-30S FRIDAY MORNING
HAVE PROMPTED FROST AND FREEZE-RELATED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. COOLER AIR
LINGERING NORTH OF THE UPPER-LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS COOL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S HERE AS WELL. THE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN WARMER AND AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. SOME WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, NEAR
RECORD TYING/BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S CONTINUE FOR
SOUTHERN TEXAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
INTERIOR WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER LOCATIONS, WITH
60S AND EVEN SOME 70S POSSIBLE. THE PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
WEST COAST WILL BRING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
PUTNAM
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page