470
FXUS01 KWBC 241958
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VALID 00Z SAT OCT 25 2025 - 00Z MON OCT 27 2025
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BRING A FLASH FLOOD AND
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...A PACIFIC SYSTEM ACCOMPANIED BY AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING LOWER ELEVATION HEAVY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE RETURNS
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS
OUTLINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY, AND OVER
THE ARKLATEX/EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY FOR THE THREAT OF SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING WITH THESE
STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AND
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS TODAY, WHICH SHIFTS EAST
TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW FOR THE THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
TO THE WEST, HEAVY COASTAL RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW
FROM AN EARLY-SEASON ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
RANGES AND CASCADES. SEVERAL INCHES OF MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE EXPECTED
ATOP THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES HEADING
INTO SATURDAY AS COOL AIR FLOWS INLAND BEHIND A COLD FRONT, WHERE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES INLAND, WITH LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY
CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN FOR HIGHER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY, THOUGH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BEYOND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, USHERING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF ISOLATED FLOODING AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOWS ON SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE, LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO FRIDAY AS COOL POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
MOVES OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS. TEMPERATURE-WISE, CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN AROUND OR A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. COOLER AIR
LINGERING NORTH OF THE UPPER-LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS COOL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S HERE AS WELL. THE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN WARMER AND AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. SOME WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, NEAR
RECORD TYING/BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S CONTINUE FOR
SOUTHERN TEXAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD FROM THE
INTERIOR WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER LOCATIONS, WITH
60S AND EVEN SOME 70S POSSIBLE. THE PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
WEST COAST WILL BRING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
ASHERMAN/PUTNAM
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