970
FXUS01 KWBC 250729
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
328 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
VALID 12Z SAT OCT 25 2025 - 12Z MON OCT 27 2025
...ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY...
...ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEAVY LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED...
AN ENERGETIC UPPER-WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE
ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VERY MOIST, SOUTHERLY GULF
FLOW AIDED BY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FUEL HEAVY
RAIN-PRODUCING STORMS WITH RAIN RATES UPWARDS OF 2" PER HOUR. THE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS MAY LEAD TO RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS
3-5 INCHES, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4)
IN EFFECT FROM EASTERN TEXAS/THE ARKLATEX EAST TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE THREAT OF SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION, MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR AS WINDS INCREASE WITH THE PASSING UPPER WAVE WILL SUPPORT
SOME MORE ROBUST, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL
2/5) FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR
THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EAST SUNDAY WITH STORMS
SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
ISOLATED, BUT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
TO THE WEST, A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS BRINGING AN INFLUX
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
HEAVY COASTAL AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN
SNOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND. SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR SATURDAY ALONG
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES, WITH THE RISK
DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT PASSAGES BRING COOLER, DRIER
AIR, REDUCING HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
SPREAD FURTHER INLAND WITH THE SYSTEM(S) ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN/ROCKIES SATURDAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY WITH
SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS FOR MAINLY LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN FOR HIGHER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY-MONDAY, BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. VERY STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND INTO SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
ELSEWHERE, SOME DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA WITH A LINGERING FRONT NEARBY. DAILY
LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO BELOW FALL
AVERAGES FROM THE EAST COAST WEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH POST-FRONTAL
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, AS HIGHS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST BY
SUNDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO
THE 60S. WARMER, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SHUNTED TO FLORIDA, THE GULF COAST, AND TEXAS, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S. A POCKET OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS INTO THE 90S
CONTINUES FOR SOUTH TEXAS, WHERE A COUPLE DAILY RECORD HIGHS COULD
BE MATCHED OR BROKEN. UPPER-RIDGING STRETCHING FROM PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS THIS WEEKEND, WITH 60S AND EVEN SOME 70S
LIKELY. MULTIPLE COLD FRONT PASSAGES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S.
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