377
FXUS01 KWBC 251923
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
322 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
VALID 00Z SUN OCT 26 2025 - 00Z TUE OCT 28 2025
...ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HEAVY LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND
HAZARDOUS MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED...
...ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY...
...COASTAL STORM TO GENERATE PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY; GENERALLY DRIER THAN NORMAL AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE NORTHEAST; WARMER THAN
NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST. STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST, A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ESCORT A PAIR OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS AND A POTENT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM
CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST WINDS DOWN SUNDAY MORNING, A
SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FROM THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IN TO THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES MAY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION CONCLUDES MONDAY MORNING. OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
ELEVATIONS BELOW 3,000FT. ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
POSTED FOR ANYWHERE FROM 4-12" OF SNOW (HIGHER AMOUNTS IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS) WITH LIKELIHOOD FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN
AFFECTED AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. UNSEASONABLY COOL INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
ACROSS THE SOUTH, A STORM SYSTEM TAPPING INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE
HAS BEEN THE CATALYST FOR GENERATING STRONG-TO-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
DEEP SOUTH. THROUGH TONIGHT, WPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK (THREAT
LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) ALSO
HAS A SLIGHT RISK (THREAT LEVEL 2/5) FROM THE EASTERN REACHES OF
THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER (TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL) ALL
POSSIBLE. THE STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EAST TOMORROW WITH THE A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PLACE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND A MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1/4) THAT STRETCHES FROM
THE GULF COAST TO AS FAR NORTH AS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SPC ALSO HAS A MARGINAL RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
SUNDAY WITH SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS AND TORNADOES.
BY MONDAY, THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SPAWN A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THAT
RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. WPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR PARTS OF GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINAS WHERE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, THE STORM SYSTEM THAT USHERED IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THIS WEEKEND HEADS FOR THE GREAT PLAINS,
RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF AND
ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE, ASIDE FROM SOME
HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN STEADFAST IN ITS
CONTROL OF THESE REGIONS AND MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN THE NORTHEAST,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND IN THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE WARMEST
REGIONS COMPARED TO NORMAL WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH
SOUTH TEXAS WHERE DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND IN THE 90S
IN SOME CASES CLOSER TO THE US/MEXICO BORDER. THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL ALSO WITNESS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 60S IN THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY.
MULLINAX
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page