242
FOUS30 KWBC 261600
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
DAY 1
VALID 16Z SUN OCT 26 2025 - 12Z MON OCT 27 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...
..CENTRAL GULF COAST
ENERGY ROTATING BENEATH A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL HELP PROPEL A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO A MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
RICH ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/FLORIDA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1.5-2", WHICH WILL BE IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF PWATS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MUCAPE BETWEEN
1000-1500J/KG SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
1-3IN./HR RAIN RATES IN SOME PLACES. URBAN AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO RUNOFF FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A GROWING CONSENSUS FOR SLOWER CELL MOTIONS AND BACKBUILDING
STORMS OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SLIGHT WAS
MAINTAINED FOR THE GULF COAST SPANNING FROM FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY WAS
EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A
BROAD MARGINAL REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY.
..CENTRAL FLORIDA
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY SUSTAINED RAINFALL HAS EMERGED IN THE
CAMS THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL VORTICES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG LOW, AND BENEATH MODEST UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE CONVECTION
FROM FLORIDA UP THROUGH COASTAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30-40KTS WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND SLOW CELL
MOTION. EASTERLY ON- SHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ADVECT
OVER AN INVERTED TROUGH, AND QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED EAST-
WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE, WESTERLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL/SURFACE FLOW WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT BACKBUILDING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE (1-2" PWATS) ACROSS THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA. ML CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000J/KG SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE THE 1-3"+ RAIN RATES WITHIN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE 12Z HREF 40KM NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITY OF
6HR QPF EXCEEDING 100 YEAR ARI FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
BETWEEN 30-60%. 3 AND 5" EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO WELL
OVER 25-30% AS WELL.
KEBEDE
DAY 2
VALID 12Z MON OCT 27 2025 - 12Z TUE OCT 28 2025
... THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL PIVOT TO THE
NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ENTER A
RELATIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL REDUCE THE THE RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL; HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT
ISOLATED MAXIMUMS NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. A MARGINAL RISK
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE, EASTERN GEORGIA,
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
DAY 3
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 28 2025 - 12Z WED OCT 29 2025
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
CAMPBELL
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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