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FXUS06 KWBC 261901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN OCTOBER 26 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 01 - 05 2025
THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODELS BROADLY AGREE ON AN AMPLIFIED
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE
610 DAY PERIOD, WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS IN THE AMPLITUDE
AND PHASE OF PREDICTED WAVE FEATURES. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL MORE HEAVILY DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER
ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH
BELOW-NORMAL MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA, EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC. ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH WITH NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS),
WHILE ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED IN THE VICINITY OF
HAWAII.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA
AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF
THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MAINE, INFLUENCED BY THE RIDGE
OVER CANADA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CONUS, INCLUDING THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE MID-ATLANTIC, UNDER THE PREDICTED
TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII IN THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, WHERE DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, AHEAD OF A TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR CERTAIN AREAS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 03 - 09 2025
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS, WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLVES AND
DEAMPLIFIES LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODEL
FORECASTS, A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE A TROUGH IS FORECAST
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN WEEK 2. NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED
ACROSS HAWAII.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS, UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR THE MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, UNDER THE TROUGH, SUPPORTED BY
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR ALASKA FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FAVORS NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, UNDER A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE
OPERATIONAL AUTOBLEND PRECIPITATION TOOL. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO BE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), ABOUT
AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY INCREASING UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 01 - 05 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA N B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 03 - 09 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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