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FOUS30 KWBC 262331
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
731 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
DAY 1
VALID 01Z MON OCT 27 2025 - 12Z MON OCT 27 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...
..CENTRAL GULF COAST
SHORTWAVES ROTATING BENEATH A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE FORECAST TO REIGNITE CONVECTION NEAR
THE FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN INSTABILITY
POOL MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST PRESENTLY, WITH SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY INLAND CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERNMOST PIEDMONT
OF THE APPALACHIANS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, INSTABILITY, AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WHICH COULD REACH HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2.5" AND LOCAL TOTALS TO
5" WHERE STORMS TRAIN, BACKBUILD, OR MERGE. EVEN THOUGH RECENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD, THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA WAS MAINTAINED FOR PORTIONS OF THE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SINCE
THE INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE THERE FOR ISSUES. IMPACTS WOULD BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT IN URBAN AREAS.
..EASTERN FLORIDA
A SIGNAL FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL PERSISTS IN THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z ALONG THE FL COAST, AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE GEORGIA COAST. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
HELPING TO AID DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE ALOFT. ONSHORE FLOW IS
ALLOWING FOR SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MOVE ASHORE,
AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE NEARLY BALANCED,
IMPLYING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULDN'T GO TERRIBLY FAR
INLAND OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZATION, WHETHER IN THE FORM OF OCCASIONAL MESOCYCLONES,
BACKBUILDING, OR CELL TRAINING. CELL MERGERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WHERE ORGANIZED CONVECTION RUNS INTO LESS ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN CAPABLE OF HOURLY AMOUNTS TO 3" AND LOCAL
TOTALS TO 7", WHICH IS A REASONABLY ASSUMPTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THE SLIGHT RISK WAS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
18Z HREF GUIDANCE, WHICH APPEARS TO BE DOING A BETTER JOB THAN THE
12Z REFS AT THIS TIME.
ROTH
DAY 2
VALID 12Z MON OCT 27 2025 - 12Z TUE OCT 28 2025
... THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
..2030Z UPDATE
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/WESTERN
CAROLINAS FOR MONDAY. 40KM NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF 24HR QPF
EXCEEDING 5" IS BETWEEN 15-25% OVER PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN
CAROLINAS, WHILE EAS NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 3" IS
UP TO 5%. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF OVER 2" ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE TERRAIN.
KEBEDE
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL PIVOT TO THE
NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ENTER A
RELATIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL REDUCE THE THE RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL; HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT
ISOLATED MAXIMUMS NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. A MARGINAL RISK
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE, EASTERN GEORGIA,
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
CAMPBELL
DAY 3
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 28 2025 - 12Z WED OCT 29 2025
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
KEBEDE
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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