400
FOUS30 KWBC 271530
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1130 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
DAY 1
VALID 16Z MON OCT 27 2025 - 12Z TUE OCT 28 2025
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST...
A FEW LOCATIONS OBSERVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT LEAD TO
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING YESTERDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTFUL TO THE VULNERABLE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO AID
DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE ALOFT. ONSHORE FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MOVE ASHORE, AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE NEARLY BALANCED, IMPLYING STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULDN'T GO ADVANCE TOO FAR INLAND. BACK BUILDING
AND TRAINING OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. A MARGINAL RISK AREA
WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE EASTERN COASTLINE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE WITH THIS UPDATE, THE MRGL RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SURROUNDINGS WAS REMOVED AS RAINFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 0.5"/HR WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY.
WHILE LOCALIZED ~2" TOTALS ARE EXPECTED, THE RELATIVELY LONG
DURATION RAINFALL WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.
CHURCHILL/CAMPBELL
DAY 2
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 28 2025 - 12Z WED OCT 29 2025
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AND SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
A COLD FRONT EFFECTING FROM THE WEST INTO THE PLAINS WILL HAVE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE RAIN FALLING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. WILL BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN DECENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS, THERE IS
A GROWING SIGNAL THAT HEAVY RAIN MAY FOCUS OVER THE MID/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THUS INCREASES THE RISK THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. A MARGINAL RISK WAS INTRODUCED
COVERING SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, EASTERN ARKANSAS, NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI, NORTHWEST ALABAMA, WESTERN TENNESSEE, AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY.
CAMPBELL
DAY 3
VALID 12Z WED OCT 29 2025 - 12Z THU OCT 30 2025
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND MID-ATLANTIC...
THE CLOSED LOW WILL PIVOT FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY/CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION. RECENT RAINFALL
OVER THIS REGION WILL HAVE LOWERED LOCAL FFG AND ELEVATED RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. A MARGINAL RISK
AREA SPANS FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA NORTHWARD TO WEST VIRGINIA AND
FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA.
CAMPBELL
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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