662
FXCA20 KWBC 271753
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
153 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 27 OCTOBER 2025 AT 1800 UTC:
HURRICANE MELISSA:
HURRICANE MELISSA WILL CONTINUE TO SEVERELY IMPACT JAMAICA AND
HAITI FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 70MM, WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST INTO JAMAICA AND THE TIBURON PENINSULA OF HAITI.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THESE AREAS AS WELL, YIELDING HIGHER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS. TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND ADDITIONAL TOTALS AROUND 500-750MM ARE
EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EVEN HIGHER POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA.
AS THE TRACK EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO A NORTHEASTERLY MOTION, REMNANT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION
TO CONTINUE IN THE TIBURON PENINSULA FROM TODAY UNTIL THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN HAITI IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY, AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF
300-400MM ARE EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWEST HAITI FROM TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
IN CUBA, EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE MELISSA WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT AS
EARLY AS TONIGHT, AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ENTER THE
SOUTHEAST OF CUBA, WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MID-LATITUDES WILL TAKE THE STORM
WITH IT, AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, BUT
LOWER THAN THOSE IN JAMAICA DUE TO A QUICKER PROGRESSION THROUGH
THE ISLAND. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN CUBA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION OF 400-500MM IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, HURRICANE MELISSA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS QUICKLY, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH-END STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 200-300MM
ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
A LONG FETCH PLUME OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO FLOW FROM THE WEST
INTO COSTA RICA AND PANAMA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC INTERACTION ON THE SOUTHERN COASTS, HEAVY COASTAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY IN COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA. ON WEDNESDAY, A STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL
LIMIT THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURS, AND LOWER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. WITH THAT, HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS STILL EXPECTED TODAY, WITH 40-80MM EXPECTED IN COSTA RICA, AND
25-50MM EXPECTED IN PANAMA.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF MEXICO FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S., AND WILL MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE GULF. THE TAIL-END OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION TO VERACRUZ ON WEDNESDAY, WITH 20-35MM OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
IN HONDURAS, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MELISSA WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS, AND
WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON
WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
VERACRUZ, WILL AID IN CONVERGING MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS, BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN BELIZE,
GUATEMALA, AND HONDURAS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF UP TO 20-35MM ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
MOST OF TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE EXPERIENCING
SEASONABLE PRECIPITATION, WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS,
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AND LOCALIZED EFFECTS.
MOST PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA, WITH LONG-FETCH PACIFIC
MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE REGION. LOWER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED IN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH SEASONABLE AND LOCAL CONVECTION OCCURRING DAILY.
SOUTHWEST MOISTURE FLOW IS ALSO ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF HURRICANE MELISSA, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 28/00 28/12 29/00 29/12 30/00 30/12 31/00
TW 19N 28W 31W 34W 39W 42W 44W 49W 52W
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