592
FXUS06 KWBC 271904
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON OCTOBER 27 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 02 - 06 2025
THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODELS BROADLY AGREE ON AN AMPLIFIED
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS IN THE AMPLITUDE
AND PHASE OF PREDICTED WAVE FEATURES. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL MORE HEAVILY DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER
ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH
BELOW-NORMAL MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE BERING SEA, MUCH OF ALASKA, AND THE
GULF OF ALASKA. ANOTHER TROUGH WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS
FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WHILE ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER, UNDER A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST,
BIAS-CORRECTED, AND RAW TEMPERATURE TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, DUE TO A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND ALSO SUPPORTED BY A MAJORITY OF THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS. MAXIMUM ODDS OF
80-90% ARE INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, INCLUDING MOST OF
CALIFORNIA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA ARE ALSO FAVORED TO HAVE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH PREDICTED
TO EXTEND FROM THE BERING SEA TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHICH
ARE CLOSER TO THE LOCATION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. WELL TO THE SOUTH, THERE IS
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS,
BASED ON THE AUTOMATED AND CONSOLIDATED TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS, AND
MOST OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS AREA OF FAVORED
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AND SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST REGIONS. THE RELATIVE DRYNESS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS, WITH THE GULF COAST EXTENSION ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE PRIMARY
STORM TRACK FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND CONTINUING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO VALLEY,
MOST OF THE APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
AND THE SOUTHERN COAST, DOWNSTREAM OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PREDICTED NORTH OF HAWAII SIGNIFICANTLY TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS
WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THAT REGION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR CERTAIN AREAS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 04 - 10 2025
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS, WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLVES AND
DEAMPLIFIES LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODEL
FORECASTS, A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES PERSIST FROM THE BERING SEA
AND MUCH OF ALASKA TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. SLIGHTLY WEAKER (RELATIVE TO THE
EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD) ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE A TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN WEEK 2.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, FROM
ABOUT THE PACIFIC COAST EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAXIMUM ODDS OF
70-80% ARE INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. IN CONTRAST,
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ABOUT THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
OF THE APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE EAST COAST AND NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN (CMCE) IS THE OUTLIER,
BEING THE FIRST MODEL SOLUTION FAVORING THE RETURN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AS FAR EAST AS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR BOTH ALASKA
AND HAWAII HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND FOR LEEWARD AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES, AND FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED STORM
TRACK, AND LAKE-EFFECT PRECIPITATION AFTER THE PREDICTED PASSAGE OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS IS
INDICATED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA, AND IS RELATED TO MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE ELEVATED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
IS IN LINE WITH THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST. A LARGE REGION OF NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE EAST, REPRESENTING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN A
NUMBER OF MODELS/TOOLS SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND A NUMBER OF
MODELS/TOOLS SUPPORTING BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. PART OF THIS DILEMMA
RESULTS FROM THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF EASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
THE GULF COAST, AND HOW QUICKLY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF SETS UP. THE ALASKA
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR WEEK-2 IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PRECEDING 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. FOR HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
ISLANDS OF OAHU, KAUAI, AND NIIHAU, WITH NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS. THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION SUPPORTING THIS IS A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER PREDICTED WEST OF THE ISLANDS, WITH A SOUTHERLY FEED OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS. WITH TIME, THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD, WITH ITS PRECIPITATION LARGELY MISSING THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE ARCHIPELAGO.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS, OFFSET BY A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN PREDICTED LATER IN THE PERIOD AND
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 02 - 06 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 04 - 10 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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