748
FOUS30 KWBC 280037
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
837 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
DAY 1
VALID 01Z TUE OCT 28 2025 - 12Z TUE OCT 28 2025
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
EXISTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS
CIN TRIES TO SET IN, WHICH IS LEADING TO SOME REDUCTION IN
INTENSITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE CROSSING LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. SINCE SOME DEGREE OF CELL TRAINING AND CELL MERGERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE, RECONFIGURED THE MARGINAL RISK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MINIMAL THREAT. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY
COULD PERSIST AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT BEFORE FADING. UNTIL THEN, HOURLY
AMOUNTS TO 2" AND LOCAL TOTALS TO 4" REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DAY 2
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 28 2025 - 12Z WED OCT 29 2025
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
2030Z UPDATE: AN INHERITED MRGL RISK CENTERED ON THE MID-SOUTH WAS
REMOVED FOR THIS UPDATE, AS A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND PREVAILING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LARGELY BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL FOR THE REGION (AS SUGGESTED BY LESS THAN 5% CHANCES FOR
1-HR, 3-HR, AND 6-HR FFG EXCEEDANCE PER LATEST 12Z HREF SUITE).
CHURCHILL
DAY 3
VALID 12Z WED OCT 29 2025 - 12Z THU OCT 30 2025
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
2030Z UPDATE: A CLOSED UPPER-LOW WILL PIVOT FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO
THE OH VALLEY, CAUSING RAINFALL TO OVERSPREAD THE TN/OH VALLEY WITH
ANOMALOUS LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DRIVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE
THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE BENEFICIAL, SHORT-TERM
FFGS (1-HR AND 3-HR) MAY BE LOW ENOUGH (AS LOW AS 1.0" AND 1.5",
RESPECTIVELY) TO ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED EXCEEDANCE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS IS DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY (SIMILAR TO DAY 2 ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH), AS THE DYNAMICS OF THE CLOSED LOW (NOTABLE PV ANOMALY
WITH ENHANCED DIVERGENCE ALOFT VIA LEFT EXIT REGION OF ~130 KT JET
STREAK @ 250 MB) MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED 2" EXCEEDANCE IN THE OH/TN
VALLEY (WITH TERRAIN FORCING PRIMARILY DRIVING ANY LOCALIZED 2"
EXCEEDANCE ALONG/EAST OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS).
CHURCHILL
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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