081
FOUS30 KWBC 281538
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1138 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
DAY 1
VALID 16Z TUE OCT 28 2025 - 12Z WED OCT 29 2025
16Z UPDATE: SOME VERY LOCALIZED BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE FORECAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.
DESPITE THE EXPECTATION, A LACK OF RELEVANT BUOYANCY IN THE SETUP
WILL MITIGATE RAINFALL RATES CAPABLE OF MORE APPRECIABLE FLASH
FLOOD PROSPECTS, LIKELY RELEGATING ANYTHING TO VERY LOCALIZED
WITHIN URBANIZED ZONES. THE THREAT REMAINS BELOW THE MRGL RISK
THRESHOLD, BUT STILL NON-ZERO (1-5%) BASED UPON THE THERMODYNAMIC
ASSESSMENT AND DRIER ANTECEDENT SOILS LEADING IN.
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
KLEEBAUER
DAY 2
VALID 12Z WED OCT 29 2025 - 12Z THU OCT 30 2025
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY WITH
ANOMALOUS LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DRIVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW SWIVELS FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MUCH OF THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL EXPERIENCE BENEFICIAL
MOISTURE; HOWEVER THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HOURLY RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES/HOUR THAT COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS IS DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY
(SIMILAR TO DAY 2 ACROSS THE MID- SOUTH), AS THE DYNAMICS OF THE
CLOSED LOW (NOTABLE PV ANOMALY WITH ENHANCED DIVERGENCE ALOFT VIA
LEFT EXIT REGION OF ~130 KT JET STREAK @ 250 MB) MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED 2" EXCEEDANCE IN THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY (WITH TERRAIN
FORCING PRIMARILY DRIVING ANY LOCALIZED 2" EXCEEDANCE ALONG/EAST
OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS).
CAMPBELL/CHURCHILL
DAY 3
VALID 12Z THU OCT 30 2025 - 12Z FRI OCT 31 2025
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST...
THE SYSTEM MENTIONED FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD DIRECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
FOCUS OVER NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK WHERE WPC
HAS AREAL AVERAGES OF 1.5-2.5 INCHES FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS
PART OF THE REGION IS WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR REACHING OR
EXCEEDING LOCAL FFG GUIDANCE SO A MARGINAL RISK AREA REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY, PENNSYLVANIA, NEW YORK, AND
CONNECTICUT.
CAMPBELL
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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