407
FXCA20 KWBC 281741
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
140 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 28 OCTOBER 2025 AT 1745 UTC:
HURRICANE MELISSA:
HURRICANE MELISSA WILL CONTINUE DROPPING TORRENTIAL RAIN OVER
JAMAICA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
FINALLY EXITING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL REMAIN HIGH, OVER 70MM, AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED, YIELDING EXTREMELY HIGH
PRECIPITATION TOTALS TODAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 500-750MM CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED FROM TODAY UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
GREATEST. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN JAMAICA WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN HISPANIOLA, HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN
COASTS, PARTICULARLY THE TIBURON PENINSULA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE MELISSA WILL NOT BE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
HISPANIOLA, SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON THE SOUTHEAST OF MELISSA
WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ONSHORE INTO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI AND
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, WHICH WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT, WILL
AID IN INCREASING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL
REACH A MAXIMUM OF 150-200MM FROM TODAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER 200MM EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
IN CUBA, RAINFALL DUE TO MELISSA HAS BEGUN, WITH THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANDS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE REGION. AFTER PASSING THROUGH
JAMAICA, MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO SOUTHEAST CUBA
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEFORE THEN, THE OUTER
BANDS WILL CONTINUE DROPPING TORRENTIAL RAIN INTO THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPON LANDFALL, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY LATE AT NIGHT, WITH A QUICK
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, WITH AROUND 400-500MM EXPECTED FROM TODAY UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF OVER 500MM
ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS OF HIGHER ELEVATION.
IN THE BAHAMAS, IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE MELISSA WILL BEGIN LATE
TONIGHT, AND WILL RAMP UP ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN ON THE FAR REACHES OF THE OUTER BANDS WILL BEGIN LATER TODAY
IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MELISSA WILL MOVE FULLY INTO THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. AT
THIS POINT, THE STORM WILL BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY, AND RAINFALL
WILL BE SHORT-LASTING BUT INTENSE. PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 200-300MM FROM TODAY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
CENTRAL AMERICA:
A LONG FETCH PLUME OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO FLOW FROM THE WEST
INTO COSTA RICA AND PANAMA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC INTERACTION ON THE SOUTHERN COASTS, HEAVY COASTAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY IN COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA. ON WEDNESDAY, A STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL
LIMIT THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURS, AND LOWER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH 30-60MM EXPECTED TODAY, AND 25-50MM ON
WEDNESDAY.
IN MEXICO, A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
DOWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S., AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE
GULF. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN
ENTERING THE GULF AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY, AND BY THURSDAY MORNING IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA, EXTENDING THROUGH THE EAST COAST OF
MEXICO, INCLUDING VERACRUZ, AND TAMAULIPAS. THE TAIL-END OF THE
FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO VERACRUZ ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
20-45MM OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAUSED BY LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS,
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AND LOCALIZED EFFECTS
THROUGH THE NEXT THREE. MOST PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COLOMBIA, WITH LONG-FETCH PACIFIC MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE
REGION. LOWER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED IN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH
SEASONABLE AND LOCAL CONVECTION OCCURRING DAILY. FURTHER SOUTH, A
STRONG INFLUX OF MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE EAST WILL ALSO BE
SUBJECT TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT, AIDING IS STRONG CONVECTION IN
NORTH PERU, WEST BRAZIL, AND EAST ECUADOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 28/00 28/12 29/00 29/12 30/00 30/12 31/00
TW 11N 34W 38W 43W 47W 51W 53W 56W 59W
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