937
FXUS06 KWBC 281922
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE OCTOBER 28 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 03 - 07 2025
THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODELS BROADLY AGREE ON AN AMPLIFIED
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS IN THE AMPLITUDE
AND PHASE OF PREDICTED WAVE FEATURES. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL MORE HEAVILY DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER
ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH
BELOW-NORMAL MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE BERING SEA, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF ALASKA, AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE PREDICTED MAXIMUM NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DOUBLE THE MAGNITUDE IT WAS FORECAST
TO BE ON YESTERDAY'S HEIGHT BLEND (-120 METERS TODAY VS. -60 METERS YESTERDAY).
THIS INTENSITY IS DERIVED MAINLY FROM THE ECENS AND CMCE, WITH THE GEFS
SOLUTION BEING MUCH WEAKER. A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS, ZONALLY-ORIENTED TROUGH WITH
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST TO SPAN THE ENTIRE MID-HIGH
LATITUDE ATLANTIC, WITH THE WESTERN FLANK OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), AND THE EASTERN FLANK PREDICTED OVER WESTERN
EUROPE. ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER
EASTERN ALASKA, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN DOMAIN.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE EAST COAST STATES UNDER A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE DEPICTION REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE REFORECAST
TEMPERATURE TOOLS (WHICH FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FARTHER EAST), AND THE
BIAS-CORRECTED AND RAW TOOLS (WHICH FAVOR THE RELATIVE COLD FARTHER WEST).
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, DUE
TO A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ALSO SUPPORTED BY A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
TEMPERATURE TOOLS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, MAXIMUM ODDS OF 80-90% ARE INDICATED
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA ARE ALSO
FAVORED TO HAVE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH PREDICTED TO EXTEND FROM THE BERING SEA TO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA, THE ALASKA
PENINSULA, AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE LOCATION OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH. WELL TO THE SOUTH, THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, BASED ON THE AUTOMATED AND CONSOLIDATED
TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND MOST OF
THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ZONALLY ELONGATED TROUGH
PREDICTED TO EXTEND FROM THE BERING SEA TO THE GULF OF ALASKA, A BROAD AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECENS INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) TOOLS.
AREAS OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
(RELATED TO THE NEARBY MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC) AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
(FROM ENHANCED MOISTURE THAT IS PREDICTED TO STREAM IN FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA). ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA
IN BROAD ONSHORE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. FOR HAWAII, A
SUBJECTIVE CONSENSUS OF THE ERFCON AND AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR
WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS.
THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS, WHERE SOME MODELS AND TOOLS PREDICT
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND OTHERS FORECAST ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION,
WHICH RESULTS IN A COMPROMISE OF NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE ORIGIN OF THE
DILEMMA IS RELATED TO THE FORECAST DETAILS OF THE DAILY 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, WITH A RIDGE ON DAY 8 TRANSITIONING VERY RAPIDLY TO A
TROUGH ON DAY 9. WHAT EVENTUALLY HAPPENS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER A RIDGE OR TROUGH DOMINATES UPSTREAM OVER THE
PLAINS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MODEL HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, OFFSET BY
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE FOR THE SOUTHEAST
(NOTED ABOVE).
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 05 - 11 2025
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS, WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES. IN
THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODEL FORECASTS, A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES PERSIST FROM THE BERING SEA AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA
TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. SOMEWHAT WEAKER (RELATIVE TO THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY
PERIOD) ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER
MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A WEAK EXTENSION PREDICTED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ZONALLY-ELONGATED ATLANTIC TROUGH IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER HAWAII ARE
PREDICTED TO BE NEAR-NORMAL DURING WEEK-2.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES, FROM THE
PACIFIC COAST EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO NEAR THE APPALACHIANS,
INCLUDING MUCH OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. MAXIMUM ODDS OF 70-80% ARE INDICATED
OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOST MODELS AND TOOLS, A DEAMPLIFYING CIRCULATION, AND WIDESPREAD ANOMALOUS
RIDGING. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY INCREASED OVER NEW
ENGLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID-LEVEL ATLANTIC TROUGH.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EAST COAST STATES, IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE EASTWARD RETREATING ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR FROM THE
ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR
BOTH ALASKA AND HAWAII HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
WITH THE PREDICTED FLATTENING OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING
WEEK-2, THE PREDICTED PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FASTER WESTERLY FLOW TILT THE ODDS
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES,
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY, AND NORTHERN MAINE. ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PREDICTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND NEARBY PARTS
OF GEORGIA, ELEVATING THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION THERE.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ECENS REFORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND TO A LESSER DEGREE, THE GEFS REFORECAST. AS WAS THE
CASE FOR THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD, NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, FOR THE SAME REASON NOTED IN THE 6-10 DAY PART OF THE
DISCUSSION. THE ALASKA PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR WEEK-2 IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF
THE PRECEDING 6-10 DAY PERIOD. FOR HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS OF OAHU, KAUAI, AND NIIHAU, WITH
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION TOOL FOR HAWAII, WHEREAS THE ERF-CON
TOOL FAVORS DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS. WITH A
MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN FORECAST TO BECOME REESTABLISHED IN WEEK-2
(AFTER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL LOW), THE AUTOMATED FORECAST IS FAVORED
OVER THE ERF-CON.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS, OFFSET BY A PREDICTED DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 03 - 07 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 05 - 11 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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