486
FXCA20 KWBC 291844
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 29 OCTOBER 2025 AT 1845 UTC:
HURRICANE MELISSA:
HURRICANE MELISSA HAS FINALLY EXITED JAMAICA, AND RAINFALL WILL
COME AT AN END BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CUBA TONIGHT, AS IT QUICKLY
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING RAIN
THROUGH SOUTHEAST CUBA, AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL
CONTINUE DIMINISHING INTO THE EVENING TODAY. ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF
25 TO 50MM ARE EXPECTED FOR CUBA UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
IN THE BAHAMAS, HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AS MELISSA MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT A NORTHEAST PATH. AFTER ITS PASSAGE,
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PLUMES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ARE FORECAST TO
ENTER THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS, WHICH WILL YIELD
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IN THE
BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AN
ADDITIONAL TOTALS UP TO 300MM ARE EXPECTED FROM TODAY UNTIL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE SEEING PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MELISSA EVEN AFTER ITS EXIT, DUE TO
PERSISTENT AND MOIST SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED IN THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL REGIONS AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION UP TO 80MM ARE
EXPECTED FROM TODAY UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION DUE TO
MELISSA SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
MOST PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS IN MEXICO WILL
CONSIST OF DAILY AND LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE
GUERRERO, MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO, AND PRECIPITATION DUE TO
A COLD FRONT ON THE EAST COAST INCLUDING VERACRUZ AND TABASCO. A
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH, AND
WILL AID IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
GULF, SOUTHERN VERACRUZ, AND JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. AT THE TAIL-END OF THE COLD FRONT, A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS,
EXTENDING FROM THE COAHUILA, NUEVO LEON, TAMAULIPAS REGION, TO
VERACRUZ/TABASCO AREA. ON FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL BAHAMAS,
CENTRAL CUBA, AND THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS. THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE, EXTENDING FROM VERACRUZ AND
TABASCO, INTO GUATEMALA, SOUTHERN BELIZE, AND NORTHWEST HONDURAS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE EAST COAST OF VERACRUZ
AND TABASCO ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH MAXIMA OF AROUND 20-45MM
AND 20-35 EXPECTED RESPECTIVELY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER
IN AREAS OF HIGHER ELEVATION DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.
GUATEMALA, BELIZE, HONDURAS, AND NICARAGUA ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
SEE DAILY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, IN WHICH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE THE CATALYST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ON THURSDAY, THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE
MELISSA WILL BRING MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH INTO BELIZE, AND THE
NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS, YIELDING A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 20-45MM OF
PRECIPITATION. ON FRIDAY, WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY DUE
TO MELISSAâ€S DEPARTURE, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE HEAVY BUT
SHORT-LASTING, AND MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION OF UP TO 20-45MM IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS ON FRIDAY.
IN COSTA RICA, THE LOW-LEVEL REGIME WILL SHIFT FROM A WESTERLY
FLOW IN THE CIRCULATION OF MELISSA, TO A NORTHERLY FLOW ONTO COSTA
RICAâ€S NORTHERN SHORES. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION AFTER
MELISSAâ€S DEPARTURE, AND GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW, AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT,
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DAILY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY, WITH
A MAXIMUM OF 30-60MM EXPECTED.
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN:
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF HURRICANE MELISSA, THE BAHAMAS AND THE
CARIBBEAN WILL EXPERIENCE A REPRIEVE FROM PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ASIDE FROM ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER, THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY, AND ADDITIONALLY, A RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH/INDUCED TROUGH WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS
WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE EAST, YIELDING PRECIPITATION FOR
JAMAICA, THE BAHAMAS, AND SOUTHEAST CUBA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UP
TO 15-30MM ARE EXPECTED FOR THESE REGIONS ON SATURDAY.
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES, A TROPICAL WAVE, CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 45W,
IS ANTICIPATED TO ENTER THE REGION ON SATURDAY, AND WILL BRING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF UP TO 15-30MM ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS, AND
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
MOST PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA, WITH LONG-FETCH PACIFIC
MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE REGION FLOWING FROM THE WEST. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR EXTREME
PRECIPITATION, AND WILL LIMIT THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION TO OCCUR
OFFSHORE. FOR THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR ONSHORE, TOTALS
UP TO 25-50MM ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
LOWER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY
LIFTED IN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SEASONABLE AND
LOCAL CONVECTION OCCURRING DAILY. FURTHER SOUTH, A STRONG INFLUX
OF MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE EAST WILL ALSO BE SUBJECT TO
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT, AIDING STRONG CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST
PERU, WEST BRAZIL, AND EAST ECUADOR TODAY AND THURSDAY.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 28/00 28/12 29/00 29/12 30/00 30/12 31/00
TW 11N 45W 48W 51W 54W 57W 61W 64W 67W
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