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FXUS06 KWBC 291909
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED OCTOBER 29 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 04 - 08 2025
THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODELS BROADLY AGREE ON AN AMPLIFIED
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH MINOR VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS IN THE AMPLITUDE AND
PHASE OF PREDICTED WAVE FEATURES. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE
MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL MORE HEAVILY DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY
CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES A ZONALLY ELONGATED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WITH BELOW-NORMAL MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS FROM EASTERN SIBERIA ACROSS THE
BERING SEA, MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE GEFS
SOLUTION CONTINUES TO PREDICT THE WEAKEST MAXIMUM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA RELATIVE TO THE ECENS AND CMCE. ANOTHER ZONALLY ELONGATED
TROUGH WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST TO SPAN THE MID-HIGH
LATITUDE ATLANTIC, WITH THE WESTERN FLANK OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), AND THE EASTERN FLANK OVER FAR WESTERN EUROPE.
ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WEAK POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
DEPICTED OVER THE HAWAIIAN DOMAIN.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES UNDER A
RETREATING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, DUE TO A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS. MAXIMUM ODDS OF 80-90%
ARE INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA
ARE ALSO FAVORED TO HAVE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF
THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH PREDICTED TO EXTEND FROM THE BERING SEA TO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA, THE
ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE LOCATION OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. WELL TO THE SOUTH, THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, BASED ON THE AUTOMATED AND
CONSOLIDATED TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ZONALLY ELONGATED TROUGH PREDICTED TO EXTEND
FROM THE BERING SEA TO THE GULF OF ALASKA, A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE
GEFS AND ECENS INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) TOOLS. ODDS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, TIED TO AN ENHANCED MOISTURE STREAM
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR
SOUTHERN ALASKA IN BROAD ONSHORE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH,
WITH A WEAK TILT TOWARDS WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE
NORTH SLOPE. FOR HAWAII, A SUBJECTIVE CONSENSUS OF THE ERFCON AND AUTOMATED
PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST ISLANDS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MODEL HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, OFFSET BY
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE FOR THE SOUTHEAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 06 - 12 2025
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS, WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES. IN
THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODEL FORECASTS, A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES PERSIST FROM EASTERN SIBERIA TO THE GULF OF ALASKA, INCLUDING WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF ALASKA. SOMEWHAT WEAKER (RELATIVE TO THE
EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD) ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A WEAK EXTENSION
PREDICTED INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AS THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION. THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC
TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE VICINITY OF NEW ENGLAND. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER
HAWAII ARE PREDICTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL DURING WEEK-2.
MID-LEVEL ANOMALOUS RIDGING FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE
LOWER 48 STATES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST, WHERE LINGERING
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
BROAD ATLANTIC TROUGH. MAXIMUM ODDS FOR ANOMALOUS WARMTH RANGE FROM 70-80% OVER
MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH MOST TEMPERATURE TOOLS. FOR AT LEAST THE PAST THREE DAYS,
THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR BOTH ALASKA AND HAWAII HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
FROM THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
WITH THE PREDICTED FLATTENING OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DURING WEEK-2, THE
FAVORED AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/SOUTHEAST CANADA TILT
THE ODDS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PREDICTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA, ELEVATING THE
ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION THERE. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE INCREASED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF
THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY, AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ECENS REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND TO
A LESSER DEGREE, THE GEFS REFORECAST. THE ALASKA PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR
WEEK-2 FAVORS WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF ALASKA. FOR HAWAII, NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS, OFFSET BY A PREDICTED DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 04 - 08 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 06 - 12 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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