920
FXUS06 KWBC 301901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU OCTOBER 30 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 05 - 09 2025
THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS
REMAINS QUITE AMPLIFIED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IS
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXCEEDING 150M.
DOWNSTREAM, A BROAD RIDGE IS FORECAST FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). A BROAD TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
SOUTH OF GREENLAND IS FORECAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BRING NEAR-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
SETS UP A WARMER AND DRYER THAN NORMAL FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE CHANCES EXCEED 80% BENEATH STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING.
ALONG THE WEST COAST, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY REDUCED DUE TO
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW. FURTHER EAST, PROBABILITIES REDUCE TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHERE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS
ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND WHERE SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST. IN SOUTHWEST
ALASKA, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED AS A RESULT
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH
STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG THE REFORECAST TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST, NORTH OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING
60% WEST OF THE NORTHERN SIERRAS AND THE CASCADE RANGES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT TOOLS FOR
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BENEATH STRONG MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE. THE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ROCKIES, PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST.
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE GREAT LAKES,
NORTHEAST, AND ATLANTIC SEABOARD. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND WITH ENHANCED SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW. BELOW NORMAL IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED BEHIND THE INITIAL TROUGH AXIS
IN WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
HAWAII WITH THE STRONGEST CHANCES EXCEEDING 40% ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL TOOLS IS OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 07 - 13 2025
THE WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE
RIDGE AND TROUGHS REMAINING IN SIMILAR REGIONS AS THE PRIOR PERIOD. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THESE FEATURES IS LOWER IN THE PERIOD, MOST LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING ENSEMBLE SPREAD. PERHAPS THE LARGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HEIGHT
PATTERNS IS LARGER NEGATIVE ANOMALIES IN THE BERING SEA, INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH, WHICH HAS SLIGHTLY RETROGRADED DURING
WEEK-2, TO RELOAD OVER TIME. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR THE HEIGHT PATTERN
TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF WEEK-2.
AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF
THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2. THE STRONGEST ODDS REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS,
EXCEEDING 70%. EXPANDED RIDGING IN THE SOUTHWEST INCREASES CHANCES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CALIFORNIA RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALONG
THE EAST COAST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED WITH MOST TOOLS
SHOWING A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, JUST OFF SHORE, TOOLS
INDICATE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST IN THE EAST AND IS APPARENT ALONG PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL CAROLINAS WHERE NEAR NORMAL IS FORECAST. IN ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL
REMAINS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST AND THE EASTERN MAINLAND WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE REGION. AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG THE REFORECAST TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH WITH
REDUCED CHANCES RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST BENEATH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING. THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN IS A LITTLE FLATTER DURING WEEK-2 RELATIVE TO
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW MORE PRECIPITATION TO REACH PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WHERE NEAR-NORMAL IS FAVORED FOR WEEK-2. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK
WHERE A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED IN FLORIDA WHERE THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND INTO
THE EASTERN MAINLAND. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS IS OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 05 - 09 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN N N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 07 - 13 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE N N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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