325
FXCA20 KWBC 301923
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 30 OCTOBER 2025 AT 1900 UTC:
THE BAHAMAS AND THE CARIBBEAN:
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA TODAY
WITH THE REMAINING MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MELISSA AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, BUT DRIER AIR AND A MORE EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SOME PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR CUBA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING AND BECOMING STATIONARY ON SATURDAY. AN INDUCED
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO AID PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER BAHAMAS FROM TODAY
THROUGH, BUT AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL IS LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, AS THE STATIONARY FRONT STAYS OVER THE AREA,
MAINTAINING DEEP MOISTURE IN THE REGION, ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BRINGING SOME INSTABILITY. FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
MID-LATITUDES MAY FURTHER INCREASE INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH, HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY AROUND 51W WILL BE ENTERING THE REGION
AND WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE LESSER AND PORTIONS OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES AS IT PROPAGATES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED MOSTLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THEN,
AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD REACH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, CAUSING
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER VENEZUELA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH,
WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO INTERACT WITH THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INTERACTING OF
THESE FEATURES, PARTICULARLY APPROACHING THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, AND THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
HAPPEN OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH THE FLOW BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN INDUCED TROUGH, BRINGING
MOISTURE ONSHORE, PARTICULARLY FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY LESS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, AS A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH INTERRUPTS MOISTURE INFLOW
FROM THE PACIFIC. IN THE REST OF THE AREA A SEASONAL PRECIPITATION
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY BE DUE TO
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH, ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS, DIURNAL HEATING, AND LOCAL EFFECTS.
AN ENHANCEMENT IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OVER TABASCO AND CHIAPAS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE
REGION. THIS FRONT, WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO HONDURAS TODAY , WILL
ALSO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS,
WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 20-45MM. THE FRONT
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, CONTINUING BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION
PARTICULARLY OVER HONDURAS.
AN AREA OF INTEREST FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS IS COSTA RICA, AND
PORTIONS OF PANAMA, AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGH ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL DAILY, WITH AN INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MAIN DRIVERS FOR PRECIPITATION ARE THE DEEP MOISTURE
AVAILABLE IN THE REGION, A NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE
ONSHORE, THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BRINGING MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT OF INSTABILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PRESENCE OF
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 31/00 31/12 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12 03/00
TW 13N 52W 54W 58W 61W 64W 68W 72W 76W
FOR THE LATEST AVAILABLE CHARTS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/INTERNATIONAL/CRB_DAY1-3.SHTML
RIVERA-TORRES...(WPC)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page