673
FXUS06 KWBC 011907
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT NOVEMBER 01 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 07 - 11 2025
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A MODERATELY
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA AND VICINITY. A TRIO OF TROUGHS ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND FROM
THE SOUTH COAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ADJACENT NORTH PACIFIC. LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WHILE WEAK RIDGING IS
PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS MID-LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS AN
ENHANCED HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS AND INCREASED
PACIFIC FLOW. DOWNSTREAM, WEAK TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A POWERFUL
TROUGH PREDICTED OFFSHORE OF ATLANTIC CANADA. AS TIME PROGRESSES, THE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN SIBERIA IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE ALEUTIANS AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND EVENTUALLY APPROACH SOUTHEAST ALASKA. MEANWHILE, THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE WEST COAST. IN RESPONSE,
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS PREDICTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGH INITIALLY FORECAST
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CONUS AS
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHERE MEAN ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED. A VARIABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND GREAT LAKES, RESULTING IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. AS A RESULT, ONLY MODESTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THESE AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS ALASKA DUE TO A PREDICTED COMPLEX MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE,
CONSISTENT WITH A PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, AHEAD OF THIS
MEAN TROUGH POSITION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII,
UNDERNEATH PREDICTED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, DUE TO ANTICIPATED ENHANCED
PACIFIC FLOW. CONVERSELY, PREDICTED EXPANSIVE RIDGING RESULTS IN A GREATER
LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN. A MODEST TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND NORTHEAST, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED WEAK
TROUGHING. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH MEAN EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR EASTERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A MEAN TROUGH EXPECTED
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MODESTLY FAVORED FOR THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII UNDERNEATH PREDICTED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A COMPLEX 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN PREDICTED IN TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 09 - 15 2025
DURING WEEK-2, LOW AMPLITUDE MEAN 500-HPA FLOW IS PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER 48 STATES. A RIDGE OF MODERATE STRENGTH IS INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS TO HOW THIS RIDGE EVOLVES WITH
WILDLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAST THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
CONUS AND HOW MUCH IT DE-AMPLIFIES IN THE PROCESS. SIMILARLY, UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AFTER A TROUGH
EXITS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF MEAN BUILDS A RIDGE INTO THE
REGION LATER IN THE PERIOD WHILE THE GEFS PREDICTS A REINFORCING TROUGH.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
MEAN TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE POSITIONING OF THIS TROUGH COUPLED WITH PREDICTED ENHANCED NORTH
TO SOUTH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENTS SUPPORTS AN ACTIVE PATTERN ALONG MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED
ACROSS THE STATE OF HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS
UNDERNEATH A LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL PATTERN AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS.
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE
MOST PERSISTENT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST DUE TO
A PREDICTED VARIABLE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED LARGE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. AS A
RESULT, MODESTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. REDUCED CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
EVIDENCED ACROSS THE WEST COAST AS INITIAL WARMTH MAY GIVE WAY TO A COLDER
PATTERN AS HEIGHTS FALL LATER IN THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT, ONLY MODESTLY
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ACROSS THIS
REGION, REPRESENTING REDUCED CONFIDENCE RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. FARTHER TO THE
NORTH, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA DUE TO
PREDICTED MEAN TROUGHING. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE
REST OF THE STATE ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN
ADJACENT WATERS.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDS 50 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO
PREDICTED HEIGHT FALLS AND ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW. PREDICTED RIDGING AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOWNSTREAM FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. A WEAKNESS IN THESE
ENHANCED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IS INDICATED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRANSIENT RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. A WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED FOR THE NORTHEAST, ASSOCIATED WITH MEAN SHALLOW CYCLONIC FLOW. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA
UNDERNEATH PREDICTED EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS ALASKA
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. A WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
HAWAII (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG ISLAND) CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED
PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
LARGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES ASSOCIATED WITH A VARIABLE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST DOMAIN.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 07 - 11 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 09 - 15 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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