064
FXUS02 KWBC 011921
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
321 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VALID 12Z TUE NOV 04 2025 - 12Z SAT NOV 08 2025
..OVERVIEW
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
BY MID- NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AS
A SERIES OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT STORMY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AS PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE IS ALSO AN EXPECTATION FOR
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK AND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THE U.S. SOUTHERN
TIER REMAINS DRY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE WEAK MEAN RIDGING INFLUENCE.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES NOW SHOW REASONABLY SIMILAR MID-LARGER SCALE
PATTERN EVOLTUIONS THROUGH MEDIUM RANGE TIME SCALES WITH EMERGENCE
OF FLATTER UPPER FLOW LADEN WITH PROGRESSIVE EMBEDDED SYSTEMS WITH
LESS CERTAIN TIMINGS. ACCORDINGLY, THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT
SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM COMPOSITE OF MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
TO PROVIDE AS MUCH DETAIL AS REASONABLE WHILE MITIGATING TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS CONSISTENT WITH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY.
THIS PLAN OVERALL SEEMS IN LINE WITH NEWEST 12 UTC GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AND WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION.
THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, BUT REPEATED ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE TERRAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST COULD RESULT
IN LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. A SYSTEM MID-NEXT WEEK
WILL LIKELY BRING A BRIEF ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON, WITH HEAVY LOW ELEVATION RAIN
AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE SIERRA NEVADA AND CASCADES.
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
EVENT, ESPECIALLY NEAR STEEP TERRAIN OR BURN SCAR AREAS, AND
THEREFORE THERE ARE MARGINAL RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
SHIFT NORTH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE LATER NEXT WEEK.
ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION RATES WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST, AND
THERE WILL BE WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH
EACH PASSING SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND SOME WRAP AROUND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THESE SYSTEMS LATE NEXT
WEEK IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT COULD BE ENOUGH TO SHOVEL.
FOR THE REST OF THE NATION, THE FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY
INCREASE OVER FLORIDA AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO LIKELY
EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THESE AREAS.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RUN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE.
DOLAN/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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