482
FXUS06 KWBC 022002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SUN NOVEMBER 02 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 08 - 12 2025
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A MODERATELY
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH STRONG TROUGHS LOCATED OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS PREDICTED
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. FARTHER TO THE EAST, A STRENGTHENING TROUGH IS FORECAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS TIME PROGRESSES, THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE ALEUTIANS AND THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
EVENTUALLY APPROACH SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, THE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE WESTERN CONUS.
MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS.
THE ECMWF HAS THE SIBERIAN TROUGH AND THE NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH MERGING OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA BEFORE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE THE CANADIAN
AND GEFS MAINTAIN TWO DISTINCT FEATURES. REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES, AN
ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. IN
RESPONSE, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING INITIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WEST IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS TO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGH INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE ECMWF PRESENTING THE
STRONGEST TROUGH OF THE THREE ENSEMBLE MEANS. GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, SANDWICHED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO ITS
NORTH AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST.
TODAY'S MODELS, AND PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, ARE FORECASTING A
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE NOW RESTRICTED MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE CONUS AS RIDGING INITIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WEST PROGRESSES TO THE
PLAINS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST, WHERE MEAN ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
MOST PRONOUNCED. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS ALASKA DUE TO A PREDICTED
COMPLEX MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, CONSISTENT WITH A PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, DUE TO ANTICIPATED ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW.
CONVERSELY, PREDICTED EXPANSIVE RIDGING RESULTS IN A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC DUE TO
PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A MODEST TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, ASSOCIATED WITH MEAN
TROUGHING. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH MEAN EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF ALASKA, AHEAD OF TROUGHS FORECAST NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF HAWAII (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG
ISLAND) CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A COMPLEX 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN PREDICTED IN TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 10 - 16 2025
DURING WEEK-2, LOW AMPLITUDE MEAN 500-HPA FLOW IS PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER 48 STATES. A RIDGE IS INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS BY
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT IS MUCH WEAKER IN THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS. THEREAFTER, ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE ARE
FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE CONUS AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE EAST COAST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AS A TROUGH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD SLOWLY DEPARTS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS RIDGE, A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH
IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF WEEK-2. UPSTREAM, A
TROUGH INITIALLY OVER EASTERN SIBERIA IS PREDICTED TO APPROACH THE ALEUTIANS
AND BERING SEA. GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE STATE OF
HAWAII, WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A PREDICTED RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
UNDERNEATH A LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL PATTERN AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS.
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN
NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. REDUCED CONFIDENCE IS EVIDENCED ACROSS THE WEST COAST AS INITIAL WARMTH
MAY GIVE WAY TO A COLDER PATTERN AS HEIGHTS FALL LATER IN THE PERIOD. AS A
RESULT, MODESTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION. FARTHER TO THE NORTH, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO CONFLICTING
TELECONNECTIONS FROM A PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS (FAVORING
WARMTH) AND FROM A TROUGH FORECAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA (FAVORING COLD).
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN ADJACENT WATERS.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES
INLAND. PREDICTED RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOWNSTREAM FAVORS BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO FAVORED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST. MODESTLY ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO SLIGHTLY FAVORED
FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. MEAN TROUGHS PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND NEAR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF ALASKA. A WEAK TILT TOWARD
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH
CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
LARGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES ASSOCIATED WITH A VARIABLE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST DOMAIN.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 08 - 12 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 10 - 16 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN N N NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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