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FXUS06 KWBC 032019
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON NOVEMBER 03 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 09 - 13 2025
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A PROGRESSIVE AND
AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL
MODELS PREDICT A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND A TROUGH NEAR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA AND THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND IN THE 6-10 DAY MEAN, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PHASE AND
AMPLITUDE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES. IN DAY-7 ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS, A
SINGLE TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EMERGE OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC FOLLOWED BY EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATER IN THE
PERIOD, WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GEFS OR CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEANS. MODELS PREDICT A MEAN RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECAST TOOLS. OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE REGION, UNDER THE
PREDICTED RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHEAST, UNDER THE
PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA, WITH A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS TO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ALONG MOST OF THE
COAST, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER
A LARGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE SOUTHEAST, AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND
UNDER ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET BY
DIFFERENCES AMONG SOME TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND UNCERTAINTY
RELATED TO A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 11 - 17 2025
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF
THE CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 8-14 DAY MEAN, WITH INCREASING DIFFERENCES AS
THE PATTERN EVOLVES. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN THE ECMWF, CANADIAN AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. A
WEAK TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IN EACH OF THE ECMWF, CANADIAN AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH DIFFERENCES RELATED TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH
PROGRESSION AND THE AMPLITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES. A
TROUGH PERSISTS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST IN ALL MODELS, WHILE WEAK SLIGHTLY
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS
IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODELS, AS THE RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THE
CANADIAN AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF 500-HPA HEIGHT
FORECASTS, DUE TO RECENT CORRELATION SKILL.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR A WIDENING AREA OF EASTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH MOST TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN AND
THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, UNDER RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WEAKER PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR THE PACIFIC COAST, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, UNDER A PERSISTENT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII IN THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS
ALASKA IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST, WITH
PERSISTENT TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND A VARIABLE PATTERN. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS, AHEAD OF THE
PREDICTED TROUGH, ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
FORECAST, AS TOOLS ARE LESS CONSISTENT. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RETURN FLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
CONSISTENT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ACROSS HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 09 - 13 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B B IOWA N B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 11 - 17 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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