531
FXUS06 KWBC 042001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE NOVEMBER 04 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 10 - 14 2025
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A PROGRESSIVE AND
AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL
MODELS PREDICT A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) LATER IN THE PERIOD, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PHASE
AND AMPLITUDE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE CANADIAN MODEL PREDICTS A MORE
RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS THAN THE ECMWF AND GEFS,
WHILE THE GEFS PREDICTS A SLOWER MOVING TROUGH AND GREATER NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE MANUAL BLEND OF 6-10 DAY MODELS PREDICTS A BROAD TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND A TROUGH AND WEAK NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THE CANADIAN AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
THE MANUAL BLEND OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, DUE TO RECENT CORRELATION SKILL.
ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS. ALL MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH AND AMPLIFIED NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS,
EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT
WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST TOOLS. OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS, UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH, WITH
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT FROM THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA TO MASSACHUSETTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA IN THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND A VARIABLE PATTERN. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS TO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, EXCLUDING THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST, AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND UNDER
ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST, AS A PREDICTED TROUGH PROGRESSES OVER THE
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET BY
DIFFERENCES AMONG SOME TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND UNCERTAINTY
RELATED TO A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 12 - 18 2025
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT CONTINUED EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS IN THE ECMWF, CANADIAN AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS IN EACH OF THE ECMWF,
CANADIAN AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH DIFFERENCES RELATED TO THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH PROGRESSION AND THE AMPLITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. THE 0Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS MORE AMPLIFIED NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THAN THE ECMWF, WHILE THE CANADIAN
MODEL PREDICTS MEAN NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO BE FURTHER EAST INTO
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITH NEAR-ZERO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WEST
COAST. A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST IN THE ECMWF AND GEFS. WEAK
SLIGHTLY POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CONUS IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODELS, AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PACIFIC COASTAL STATES INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE
GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
RELATED TO A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS
MOST OF THE INTERIOR OF THE CONUS FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS,
UNDER RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR EASTERN MAINE, AS A TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, AND NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST
DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT FOR A LARGE AREA OF
CALIFORNIA INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST, UNDER THE
PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS NOW FAVORED MOST OF THE GREAT
PLAINS, THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RETURN FLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MOST OF
THE ATLANTIC COAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS,
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, OFFSET BY
INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 10 - 14 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 12 - 18 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE B N
MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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