994
FXUS02 KWBC 050745
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
VALID 12Z SAT NOV 08 2025 - 12Z WED NOV 12 2025
..OVERVIEW
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NATION
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN PACIFIC AND RIDGING IN BETWEEN OVER THE
WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL STRONG COLD FRONTS TO PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., USHERING IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THESE REGIONS. PRECIPITATION, SOME WINTRY, WILL
FOCUS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND
NORTHEAST WHILE THE WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. REMAIN DRY UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FLATTEN OUT SOME BY
MID-NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CUTS THROUGH THE RIDGE IN
WESTERN CANADA AND DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
CONTINUE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG WEST COAST AS
WELL AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH ABOVE AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY GIVEN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN. THERE IS AN EXPECTED AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINER
SCALE DETAILS, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD WHEN THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES. MID-NEXT WEEK, THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN THE GFS AND CMC, THOUGH NOT BY MUCH, AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
SPLITS AND CUTS THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS IS ALSO
AFFECTING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM/DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM. THESE DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT THE TIMING AND
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST COAST AND GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEK.
GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, THE WPC FORECAST WAS COMPOSED OF A NEAR
EVEN BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS, ECMWF, AND CMC THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS
WERE ADDED IN INCREASING AMOUNTS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD
TO HELP SMOOTH OUT MODEL DIFFERENCES.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM RACING ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. THE LEADING
SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN THE SECOND CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION, WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIAL, IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, NEW
ENGLAND, AND APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM, A SERIES OF SUCCESSIVE
COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE,
AND SUB-FREEZING LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND
LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS THIS WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY,
PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS WILL
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE WEST, WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO THE
PLAINS EARLY-TO-MID NEXT WEEK AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN OUT A BIT NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CUTS THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVES INTO
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES MID-NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THAT COULD BRING
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST MID-NEXT WEEK AS A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES
THE COAST.
DOLAN
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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