092
FXUS02 KWBC 051916
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
VALID 12Z SAT NOV 08 2025 - 12Z WED NOV 12 2025
..OVERVIEW
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NATION
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN PACIFIC AND RIDGING IN BETWEEN OVER THE
WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL STRONG COLD FRONTS TO PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., USHERING IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THESE REGIONS. PRECIPITATION, SOME WINTRY, WILL
FOCUS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND
NORTHEAST WHILE THE WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. REMAIN DRY UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FLATTEN OUT SOME BY
MID-NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CUTS THROUGH THE RIDGE IN
WESTERN CANADA AND DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
CONTINUE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG WEST COAST AS
WELL AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST 00Z/06Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, THOUGH DETAILS ON INDIVIDUAL UPPER-
WAVES/SYSTEMS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. AT LEAST INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC AND 00Z/06Z GFS ARE WELL CLUSTERED WITH
A DEEPENING UPPER-LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES AS
AN UPPER-TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. AN UPPER-RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH IN TANDEM OVER THE WESTERN U.S., WITH AN UPSTREAM
UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. AN INITIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM ROUNDING THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S.
UPPER-TROUGH IS WELL CAPTURED BUT SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH THE
GFS, CMC, AND THEN ECMWF SHOWING PROGRESSIVELY SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
THIS WOULD IMPACT THE LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN FAVORABLY ORIENTED WINDS.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER TO THE WEST WITH SPLITTING ENERGIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER- TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE NORTHERN ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE UPPER- RIDGE AND
THEN PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD AS A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH WITH VARIOUS TIMING/PATH DIFFERENCES DEPENDENT ON HOW
MUCH IT WILL BREAK DOWN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE. POSSIBLE
PRECIPIATION CHANCES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES VARY DEPENDING ON THIS
TRACK. FINALLY, THE SOUTHERN ENERGY PLUS ADDITIONAL REINFORCING
ENERGY UPSTREAM LOOK TO FURTHER BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MID-NEXT
WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEST COAST.
DETAILS VARY BUT A HEAVY PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS GENERALLY AGREED
UPON. THE UPDATED WPC FORECAST USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z
CMC/GFS/ECMWF FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND
GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT. AN INCREASING CONTRIBUTION FROM THE MEANS WAS
INCLUDED THEREAFTER WITH THIS COMPROMISING 60% OF THE BLEND BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD SEEKING A COMPROMISE SOLUTION AS DIFFERENCES IN
THE DETAILS ACROSS THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM RACING ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. THE LEADING
SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN THE SECOND CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION, WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIAL, IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, NEW
ENGLAND, AND APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM, A SERIES OF SUCCESSIVE
COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE,
AND SUB-FREEZING LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS,
WITH FROST POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHERE HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE TEENS THIS WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE WEST, WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO THE
PLAINS EARLY-TO-MID NEXT WEEK AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN OUT A BIT NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CUTS THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVES INTO
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES MID-NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THAT COULD BRING
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST MID-NEXT WEEK AS A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES
THE COAST.
PUTNAM/DOLAN
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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