680
FXCA20 KWBC 051932
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EST WED NOV 05 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 05 NOVEMBER 2025 AT 1930 UTC:
SYNOPSIS:
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND ARRIVE TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES/WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY EVENING, BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THIS REGION, TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, AND THE GUIANAS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN GULF
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA, AND IN ISOLATED PARTS OF NORTHWEST CUBA TODAY
AND THURSDAY. IN THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN, A STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, BEFORE A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AIDS IN ITS EASTWARD
PROPAGATION. THIS RIDGE WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MODERATE PRECIPITATION INTO THE ISLANDS AND PARTS OF EASTERN CUBA
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
MEXICO, CENTRAL AMERICA, THE BAHAMAS, AND THE CARIBBEAN:
A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF WILL BRING LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
IN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF, JUST NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING
OFFSHORE IN THE GULF. AT THE SOUTHERN ENDS OF THE TROUGH, HOWEVER,
WEAKER ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
YUCATAN PENINSULA. GIVEN MOST OF THE PROLONGED MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA, MOST INLAND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THE REST OF MEXICO WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER- TO MID- LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT FROM THE PACIFIC,
PREVENTING ANY MOISTURE FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF
FROM BEING ABLE TO ENTER FROM THE EAST.
IN THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN, A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE WEAKENING,
DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL AID IN
PROPAGATING THE FRONT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE,
THE PROPAGATION OF THE RIDGE WILL AID IN CHANGING THE REMNANT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS, FROM AN EASTERLY TO
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SUBTLE ENHANCEMENT OF
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC, WHICH
WILL AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF CONVECTION. THE SOUTHEASTERLY AND
MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A MAXIMUM OF
15-25MM EXPECTED EACH DAY.
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES, AN EASTERLY WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM FROM
THE ITCZ IN THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT, AND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
WESTWARD, BRINGING IN SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE WAVE
WILL THEN REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY EVENING, PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE ISLANDS. PRECIPITATION WILL PEAK AT AROUND
15-30MM ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA, INCLUDING THE GUIANAS, NORTHEAST VENEZUELA, AND
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, TODAY AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE LOCATED OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC, AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GUIANAS, CAUSING UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE TO BE ENHANCED. THIS WILL AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF
CONVECTION FOR THIS REGION TODAY AND THURSDAY, AND PRECIPITATION
WILL PEAK AT AROUND 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF THE
EASTERLY WAVE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL ALSO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UP TO 15-20 ARE EXPECTED FOR
VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ON SATURDAY.
IN THE REST OF SOUTH AMERICA, PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CAUSED BY LOCAL, DIURNAL, AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS, WITH EASTERLY
FLOW FROM THE AMAZON PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. THE FORMATION OF THE PANAMANIAN LOW WILL CHANGE THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH
THE SEASONABLE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO CEASE DURING THIS TIME.
WITH THIS CHANGE, WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL SEE A REPRIEVE FROM HEAVY
PRECIPITATION, WITH 15-30MM EXPECTED TODAY AND 15-25MM EXPECTED
THURSDAY.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 06/00 06/12 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12 09/00
EW 11N 40W 43W 46W 48W 51W 53W 56W 60W
EW 12N 50W 52W 54W 56W 58W 60W 62W 64W
EW 20N 66W 68W 71W 73W 75W ----------
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