451
FXUS02 KWBC 051941
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
VALID 12Z SAT NOV 08 2025 - 12Z WED NOV 12 2025
..OVERVIEW
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NATION
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN PACIFIC AND RIDGING IN BETWEEN OVER THE
WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL STRONG COLD FRONTS TO PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., USHERING IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THESE REGIONS. PRECIPITATION, SOME WINTRY, WILL
FOCUS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND
NORTHEAST WHILE THE WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. REMAIN DRY UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FLATTEN OUT SOME BY
MID-NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CUTS THROUGH THE RIDGE IN
WESTERN CANADA AND DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
CONTINUE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG WEST COAST AS WELL
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST 00Z/06Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, THOUGH DETAILS ON INDIVIDUAL UPPER-
WAVES/SYSTEMS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. AT LEAST INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC AND 00Z/06Z GFS ARE WELL CLUSTERED WITH
A DEEPENING UPPER-LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES AS
AN UPPER-TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. AN UPPER-
RIDGE BUILDS NORTH IN TANDEM OVER THE WESTERN U.S., WITH AN
UPSTREAM UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST. AN INITIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM ROUNDING THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
U.S. UPPER-TROUGH IS WELL CAPTURED BUT SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH
THE GFS, CMC, AND THEN ECMWF SHOWING PROGRESSIVELY SLOWER
SOLUTIONS. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL
LAKE- EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN FAVORABLY ORIENTED
WINDS. THE UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER TO THE WEST WITH SPLITTING
ENERGIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER- TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NORTHERN ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE UPPER-
RIDGE AND THEN PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD AS A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH WITH VARIOUS TIMING/PATH DIFFERENCES
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH IT WILL BREAK DOWN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE. POSSIBLE PRECIPIATION CHANCES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES VARY DEPENDING ON
THIS TRACK. FINALLY, THE SOUTHERN ENERGY PLUS ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING ENERGY UPSTREAM LOOK TO FURTHER BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY
MID-NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
WEST COAST. DETAILS VARY BUT A HEAVY PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS
GENERALLY AGREED UPON. THE UPDATED WPC FORECAST USED AN EVEN BLEND
OF THE 00Z CMC/GFS/ECMWF FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD OVER THE
WEEKEND GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT. AN INCREASING CONTRIBUTION FROM THE
MEANS WAS INCLUDED THEREAFTER WITH THIS COMPROMISING 60% OF THE
BLEND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SEEKING A COMPROMISE SOLUTION AS
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS ACROSS THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM RACING ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. THE LEADING
SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MIDWEST,
GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL, IS EXPECTED
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, NEW ENGLAND, AND APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM, A SERIES OF SUCCESSIVE COLD
FRONTS WILL PUSH COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, AND SUB-
FREEZING LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS, WITH FROST
POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHERE HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
TEENS THIS WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT WEST- NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND
OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE WEST, WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO THE
PLAINS EARLY-TO-MID NEXT WEEK AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN OUT A BIT NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CUTS THROUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVES INTO
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES MID-NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THAT COULD BRING
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST MID-NEXT WEEK AS A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES
THE COAST.
PUTNAM/DOLAN
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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