623
FXUS06 KWBC 052002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED NOVEMBER 05 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 11 - 15 2025
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A PROGRESSIVE AND
AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL
MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE BERING SEA. A SECOND TROUGH IS PREDICTED
TO AMPLIFY OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE CANADIAN MODEL PREDICTS
A MORE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS THAN THE ECMWF
AND GEFS, WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEFS PREDICT A SLOWER MOVING TROUGH AND GREATER
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE MANUAL BLEND OF 6-10 DAY MODEL FORECASTS
PREDICTS A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A TROUGH AND
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
CONUS BY ALL MODELS. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE ECMWF AND GEFS
MODELS PREDICT A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND RIDGE THAN THE CANADIAN MODEL. THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THE CANADIAN AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, DUE TO RECENT
CORRELATION SKILL. ALL MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH AND AMPLIFIED NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER A
PREDICTED TROUGH. OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST,
UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT ALONG MUCH
OF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA TO MASSACHUSETTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA IN THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND A VARIABLE PATTERN. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS TO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED
TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS, EXCLUDING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE NORTHEAST, AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND UNDER ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT
WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET BY
DIFFERENCES AMONG SOME TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND UNCERTAINTY
RELATED TO A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 13 - 19 2025
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT CONTINUED EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL FORECASTS. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS. A
TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS IN EACH OF THE ECMWF, CANADIAN AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH DIFFERENCES
RELATED TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PROGRESSION AND THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE CANADIAN MODEL PREDICTS MORE RAPID
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND MEAN NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING FURTHER INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND GEFS. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEAST IN ALL MODELS. WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND THE
MANUAL BLEND OF MODELS.
IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER A
PREDICTED TROUGH. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PACIFIC
COASTAL STATES INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION RELATED TO A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS FROM
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST, UNDER RIDGING FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MOST
OF NEW ENGLAND, UNDER A MEAN TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, AND NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST
DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT FOR A LARGE AREA OF
CALIFORNIA INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST, UNDER THE
PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST, DUE TO RETURN FLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
GULF. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
THE EASTERN GULF COAST, AND MOST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, OFFSET BY
INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 11 - 15 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA N B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 13 - 19 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N B
MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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