843
FXUS02 KWBC 061956
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
VALID 12Z SUN NOV 09 2025 - 12Z THU NOV 13 2025
...FIRST NOTABLE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...FIRST WINTER-LIKE CHILL OF THE SEASON FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
..OVERVIEW
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NATION
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN PACIFIC AND RIDGING IN BETWEEN OVER THE
WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL STRONG COLD FRONTS TO PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., USHERING IN A WINTER-LIKE
BLAST OF MUCH COLDER AIR. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
HARD FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS
UNDER THE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND
NORTHEAST, WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR THE
GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, THE WEST AND SOUTH- CENTRAL U.S. REMAIN DRY
UNDER THE UPPER-RIDGE. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FLATTEN OUT
SOME BY MID-NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CUTS THROUGH THE
RIDGE IN WESTERN CANADA AND DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG THE WEST
COAST AS WELL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST 00/06Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED IN CONSISTENTLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AN UPCOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE INITIAL DETAILS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL, AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
UPPER-LOW AND THEN DEEPENS AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD OFF
THE EAST COAST, WITH SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS BRINGING A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD. TO THE WEST, AN UPPER-TROUGH
UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE RIDGE FROM
THE WEST, WITH THE GUIDANCE CAPTURING A SPLIT IN THE STREAMS OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO COME INTO A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHERN ENERGY, EXPECTED
TO ROUND THE RIDGE AND PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AS ANOTHER CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM, HELPING
TO FLATTEN THE FLOW A BIT. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE
SOUTHERN ENERGY WHICH HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM A MORE NOTABLE UPPER-
LOW DEVELOPING, NOW LOOKING TO SHEAR OUT MORE QUICKLY AND PHASE
WITH REINFORCING UPPER-ENERGY UPSTREAM, MAINTAINING AN UPPER-
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS UPPER-TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO APPROACH
THE WEST COAST MID- TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER/HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS TENDED TO
SHOW MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION, BUT
LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT. THE UPDATED WPC FORECAST
USED A COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS/CMC GUIDANCE
FOR THE EARLY TO MID-FORECAST PERIOD GIVEN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT,
FAVORING THE 00Z OVER 06Z GFS AS IT WAS BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
ECMWF/CMC. AN INITIAL CONTRIBUTION FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF 25%
WAS INCREASED TO 40% IN THE MID- TO LATE PERIOD, AS UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE FEATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND
WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED
DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FIRST NOTABLE LAKE-EFFECT
EVENT OF THE SEASON LATE THIS WEEKEND. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR THE UPPER
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE MID- ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION, AND A FEW FLURRIES
CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR THE MID- ATLANTIC.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES AS MEAN UPPER-TROUGHING AND WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSIST. THEN, ANOTHER CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND NORTHEAST MID-
NEXT WEEK AND RENEW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WEEKEND CLIPPER SYSTEM, A SERIES OF
SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S., USHERING IN A COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS BRINGING
THE FIRST WINTER-LIKE CHILL OF THE SEASON. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EVEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
BY MONDAY. SUB-FREEZING LOWS ARE FORECAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF
COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A HARD FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS RECORD TYING/BREAKING LOWS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS, MAYBE THE SINGLE DIGITS, THIS WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, STRONG RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO THE PLAINS EARLY-TO-MID NEXT WEEK AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE WEST COAST MID- TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES, AND THERE MAY BE
CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SIERRA NEVADA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS, WHICH COULD AFFECT THE ONSET TIME
OF PRECIPITATION.
PUTNAM/DOLAN
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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