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FXUS06 KWBC 072004
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI NOVEMBER 07 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 13 - 17 2025
THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODELS BROADLY AGREE ON A PROGRESSIVE
AND AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS
DURING THE 610-DAY PERIOD, WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS IN THE
AMPLITUDE AND PHASE OF PREDICTED WAVE FEATURES. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS
BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL MORE HEAVILY DUE TO ITS
RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS
PREDICTED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) THAT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD, WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN THE PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IN TODAY'S MANUAL
BLEND OF MODEL FORECASTS. ALL MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH AND AMPLIFIED NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THAT PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WEAK NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED IN THE VICINITY OF
HAWAII.
NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND MAINLAND
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDER ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY FLOW. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CONUS (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, AND THE NORTHEAST,
UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHERE
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED) DUE TO THE PREDICTED RIDGE, ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, OR ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW, SUPPORTED BY
MOST OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA, MOST OF
THE ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA DURING THE 610-DAY PERIOD, WITH TROUGHING
TO THE WEST AND A VARIABLE PATTERN WHERE DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
CONUS TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE WEST COAST. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, NEW YORK, AND VERMONT, CONSISTENT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND UNDER ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR CERTAIN AREAS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 15 - 21 2025
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 814-DAY PERIOD
PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 610-DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE
SURROUNDING REGIONS, WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLVES AND DE-AMPLIFIES WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL FORECASTS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST TO THE WEST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IN THE ECMWF,
CANADIAN, AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH DIFFERENCES RELATED TO THE TIMING OF
THE TROUGH PROGRESSION AND THE AMPLITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST, WHILE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODELS. NEAR-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
IN THE 814-DAY PERIOD, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS.
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDER A
PREDICTED TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA, AND WESTERN
ARIZONA, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION RELATED TO A PREDICTED
TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CONUS FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST, UNDER
RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND
ALASKA, AND NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL
MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, ARIZONA, NEVADA, AND UTAH UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH. NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
CONUS DUE TO SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR FLORIDA , CONSISTENT WITH ECMWF
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 13 - 17 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 15 - 21 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE N N
MASS B N CONN N N RHODE IS B N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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