826
FXUS06 KWBC 092001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SUN NOVEMBER 09 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 15 - 19 2025
THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODELS BROADLY AGREE ON A PROGRESSIVE
AND AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS
DURING THE 610-DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS,
WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL MORE HEAVILY DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY
CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS
PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN THE PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE EAST CONUS IN TODAY'S MANUAL
BLEND OF MODEL FORECASTS. ALL MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH AND AMPLIFIED NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THAT PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WEAK NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND MAINLAND
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDER ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY FLOW. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROUGHS AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES PREDICTED OVER THESE REGIONS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS DUE TO THE PREDICTED RIDGE, ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS, AND ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA, MOST OF
THE ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA DURING THE 610-DAY PERIOD, ASSOCIATED WITH
A VARIABLE PATTERN AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE REGION. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AND UNDER ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR CERTAIN AREAS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 17 - 23 2025
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 814-DAY PERIOD
PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 610-DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE
SURROUNDING REGIONS. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY,
RESULTING IN INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL FORECASTS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST TO THE WEST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS. A TROUGH AND
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IN THE
ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH DIFFERENCES RELATED TO THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH PROGRESSION AND THE AMPLITUDE OF ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER
MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODELS. NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND MAINLAND
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDER A
PREDICTED VARIABLE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION RELATED TO A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS UNDER RIDGING AND
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR HAWAII FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD,
CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS,
MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN
CONUS, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARIZONA, UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
ALSO SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS DUE TO SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS,
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET
BY INCREASING UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 15 - 19 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B N MAINE N N
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 17 - 23 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS N N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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