391
FXCA20 KWBC 101819
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
119 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 10 NOVEMBER 2025 AT 1830 UTC:
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN, MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
RELATIVELY CALM FOR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, AS DRY AIR IS ADVECTED
INTO THE REGION. SOME PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY OVER
JAMAICA, WITH A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTING DEEP MOISTURE AND
BRINGING SOME INSTABILITY.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF THE US EXTENDING
FROM FLORIDA AND ENTERING VERACRUZ, AND A SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CAUSE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA, AND THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
EXTENDING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA,
AND BELIZE. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH REACHING THE EASTERN BAHAMAS EXTENDING
THROUGH EASTERN CUBA AND ENTERING HONDURAS. THE FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN THE
REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PRESENCE OF THIS COLD FRONT , LATER BECOMING A STATIONARY
FRONT, SHOULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
EACH DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR HIGHER TOTALS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER EASTERN
CUBA.
THE SHEAR LINE, CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS CENTRAL AMERICA CAUSING HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG BELIZE, GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS FROM TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH NICARAGUA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT, IT IS EXPECTED TO START DISSIPATING. AS A
RESULT OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION, AND THE PRESENCE
OF THE SHEAR LINE, EXPECT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ADDITIONALLY, A PLUME OF MOISTURE
IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AS A
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES TO THE WEST, WHICH WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE SHEAR LINE. UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO GIVE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR STRONG CONVECTION.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR GUATEMALA AND BELIZE FROM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOR HONDURAS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND FOR COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER PANAMA, WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH BRINGING ONSHORE MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN,
AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE PANAMANIAN LOW DEVELOPING, FURTHER
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
EXPECT SEASONABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA,
WITH RAINFALL MOSTLY DUE TO CONVECTION-INDUCED TROUGHS, DIURNAL
HEATING, OROGRAPHIC LIFTING, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LOCAL EFFECTS. SOME PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE AMAZON REGION OF COLOMBIA, VENEZUELA AND BRAZIL
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC MAY ALSO
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH TOTALS INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST. ANOTHER AREA THAT IS
LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
IS THE WESTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA AND GUYANA, AS SOME MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED IN THE REGION, AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ENHANCEMENT IS
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC
WITH THE BASE ON THE COAST. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE
AFTER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR ENTERS THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE PANAMANIAN LOW, SOME PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN REGION OF COLOMBIA.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 11/00 11/12 12/00 12/12 13/00 13/12 14/00
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