567
FXCA20 KWBC 121928
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 12 NOVEMBER 2025 AT 1930 UTC:
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN, MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN, WITH
DRY AIR AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PERSISTING IN THE REGION LIMITING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LIGHT RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING, AND LOCAL EFFECTS.
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA
AND ENTERING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF
MEXICO, BELIZE, AND HONDURAS AS IT ENHANCES THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AVAILABLE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER HONDURAS,
PARTICULARLY AS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCED ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AFTER THURSDAY MORNING OVER HONDURAS AS THE STATIONARY
FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, CONTINUING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH LOWER
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS, TURKS AND CAICOS,
AND EASTERN CUBA THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT
RAINFALL EACH DAY.
A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH, REFLECTED AT MID-LEVELS, IS PROJECTED TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS ADVECTING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
AND ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IN
THE CARIBBEAN, HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE, DUE
TO DRY AIR INTRUSION EARLY ON FRIDAY.
OVER PANAMA, THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH SHOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, PARTICULARLY OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA,
AND THE DARIEN REGION, WHERE FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE PACIFIC.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA WILL BE
DOMINATED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, DIURNAL HEATING,
CONVECTIVE INDUCED TROUGHS AND LOCAL EFFECTS, INCLUDING OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA, AS LONG-FETCH
PACIFIC MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE REGION. THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE AMAZON REGION OF COLOMBIA, VENEZUELA,
AND BRAZIL WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION, THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL
TROUGHS AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ECUADOR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE SOME PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYP SOF INIT 13/00 13/12 14/00 14/12 15/00 15/12 16/00
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