472
FXUS06 KWBC 132001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU NOVEMBER 13 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 19 - 23 2025
MODEL ENSEMBLES FROM THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE OVER NORTH AMERICA AS DEPICTED
IN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF VARIOUS
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY MAINTAIN WEAK TO MODERATE
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST AND WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). UPSTREAM, AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS FAVORED
TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA, WHILE RIDGING BUILDS
NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC UP INTO MAINLAND ALASKA.
WITH PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST
(>80%) OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., AND DECLINE MODESTLY MOVING
NORTHWARD, HOWEVER PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60% OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED BUT ARE LESS
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
CONVERSELY, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN CONUS
UNDER PERSISTENT TROUGHING AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PACIFIC ONSHORE FLOW,
PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST (>60%) UNDER THE LARGEST
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
ALASKA DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (>50%) ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST AND THE ALASKAN PENINSULA, DECREASING
TO THE NORTH TO NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEING FAVORED FOR THE NORTH SLOPE.
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
ANOMALIES FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII.
PERSISTENT AND FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RESULTS IN
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION BEING FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. PROBABILITIES
ARE HIGHEST (>70%) OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS,
AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50% EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY RIGHT ALONG THE EAST
COAST, CONSISTENT WITH MOST FORECAST TOOLS. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALASKA, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES (>50%) OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND. HAWAII TILTS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION, CONSISTENT WITH MOST FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS, OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 21 - 27 2025
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HAVE MORE SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE REARRANGEMENT OF
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES, BUT ALL FAVOR A WAVETRAIN TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC, TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WAVETRAIN IS
FAVORED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED EARLY IN WEEK-2 RESULTING IN A SIMILAR OUTLOOK TO
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED EAST OF THE ROCKIES, EXCEEDING
60% CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO
PERSIST WEST OF THE ROCKIES DURING WEEK-2, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (>%50)
CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN ALASKA, ODDS TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE MAINLAND,
EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH SLOPE AND SEWARD PENINSULA, WHERE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE MOST LIKELY. CONTINUED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO THE NORTH AND
RELATIVELY WARM SSTS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII.
WEAK BUT BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. PROBABILITIES ARE MUCH LOWER
THAN THE 6-10 PERIOD LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED MODEL SPREAD, BUT MODESTLY
ENHANCED (>40%) CHANCES REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS, GREAT PLAINS, AND
THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND SUPPORTED
BY MOST FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ALONG MUCH OF
THE EAST COAST, AS WELL AS THE WEST COAST NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA UNDER CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
FORECAST TOOLS ALSO FAVOR A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS IS OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 19 - 23 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 21 - 27 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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