010
FXUS02 KWBC 141730
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1230 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
VALID 12Z MON NOV 17 2025 - 12Z FRI NOV 21 2025
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A
BROAD TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WESTERN U.S. AND A EXITING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF DID SHOW
BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY ON THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES OFF
THE WEST COAST, COMPARED TO CMC. MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW MORE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN U.S. AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF THE PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY CMC. IN ADDITION, THE CMC DID NOT CAPTURE THE OVERALL
RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING EASTWARD, THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PROVIDES SOME
CONFIDENCE OF THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH- CENTRAL U.S., BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFERENCES
WITHIN THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL BRING SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. GFS SEEMS TO SHOW A BIT MORE SHEARING OF THE
SHORTWAVE, WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE DEFINITION. IN ADDITION,
THE TROUGH THAT MOVES TOWARDS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS, THE GFS
APPEARED TO SHOW A FASTER MOVING SYSTEM EASTWARD, COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. THEREFORE, THE OVERALL FORECAST WERE PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY
THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTED MEAN COUNTERPARTS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
AN INITIALLY CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL EJECT
OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY AND THEN
SHEAR EASTWARD. THIS OCCURS AS KICKER UPPER TROUGHING UPSTREAM
REACHES THE WEST COAST TO PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, MOISTURE FEED INTO THE WEST SHOULD BE MUCH
WEAKER THAN THE SYSTEM DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. EVEN SO, HAVE
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT FOR DAY
4/MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS THIS AREA TENDS TO BE SENSITIVE
DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND BURN SCARS, AND
PRECURSOR HEAVY RAINS. RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EAST INTO TUESDAY, AND YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE UPPER TROUGH
MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION COULD BE MODERATE OR HEAVY AT TIMES TO MONITOR.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY SHOULD
START TO SPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND OHIO VALLEY, WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW/MIX ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THE COMPLEX FRONT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
THERE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER FRONT SHOULD REACH THE PLAINS INTO MID-LATER NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT, WITH DEEPER RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE
FRONT OFFERING A THREAT OF AN EMERGING HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN,
WHICH CAN BRING A FLOOD RISK IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. THERE IS ALSO
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN U.S. ON SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S SHOULD
REACH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE,
WHILE HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS TEXAS, LOUISIANA, AND
FLORIDA WITH 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARMER THAN
AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL
POSITION THAT WILL BE THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS, SO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE REFINED. MEANWHILE THE ROUNDS OF TROUGHING IN CALIFORNIA TO
THE SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS THERE MOST DAYS.
OUDIT/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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