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FXUS06 KWBC 152001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SAT NOVEMBER 15 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 21 - 25 2025
A TRANSITIONAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. INITIALLY, TROUGHING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST,
WITH ELONGATED RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST AND AN INLAND EXTENSION OF POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST. HOWEVER, THESE FEATURES ARE
PREDICTED TO WEAKEN AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS ALASKA
LATER IN THE PERIOD. TIED TO THIS FEATURE AND CONSISTENT WITH THE 0Z ECENS,
GEFS, AND CMCE DYNAMICAL MODELS, TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS, ALTHOUGH ITS IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER MAY NOT BECOME
APPARENT UNTIL LATER IN WEEK-2. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, RIDGING IS FAVORED ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. TODAY'S 6-10 DAY MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS A BROAD REGION
OF +30 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO ALASKA. NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII, ALTHOUGH A TREND TOWARD
LOWER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS TROUGHING AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
SUPPORTS A WARM PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO
THANKSGIVING, WITH ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FAVORED. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT) ARE INDICATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +10 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TODAY'S GUIDANCE LEANS WARMER ACROSS THE WEST
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY GIVEN INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, AND SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS
REFORECAST TOOLS. A TRANSITION TOWARD A COLDER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE
END OF THE PERIOD, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN SOME OF THE UNCALIBRATED TOOLS AND
ANALOG GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR THE PERIOD AS WHOLE OVER MOST OF THE WEST. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE THE INITIAL TROUGH AXIS AND ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION FAVORED INCREASED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER ALASKA SUPPORTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS
HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
TIED TO THE ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. LATER IN THE PERIOD, THE STRONGEST BAROCLINICITY IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEST AS RENEWED TROUGHING BUILDS INTO THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. THEREFORE, BROADLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS. THE LARGEST
PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) ARE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIED
TO THE INITIAL TROUGH AND LOW PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGIES, AND ARE SLIGHTLY
REDUCED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE BEGINS TO TIME OFF. NEAR- TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST TIED TO RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED ECENS AND GEFS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED OVER MUCH OF ALASKA TIED TO ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, A RELATIVELY DRIER PATTERN IS LIKELY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD UNDERNEATH RIDGING. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ENHANCED ODDS FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY REGARDING RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A PREDICTED
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 23 - 29 2025
THE PATTERN TRANSITION DISCUSSED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE LATER IN WEEK-2. THIS IS PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY THE MADDEN
JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO), AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC
WARMING (SSW) EVENT IN LATE NOVEMBER. THE WEEK-2 MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND
DEPICTS A +180 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER ACROSS ALASKA, WHICH
TELECONNECTS WITH MORE TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE CONUS. THIS EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REFLECTED IN THE 0Z ECENS, GEFS, AND
CMCE DYNAMICAL MODELS, WITH THE CMCE BEING THE MOST ROBUST WITH TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. RIDGING IS STILL FORECAST TO DOMINATE
THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS +30 METER
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII,
WITH BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS MORE LIKELY TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS TIED TO
TROUGHING.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WHERE RIDGING FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH
THANKSGIVING, WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5-10 DEG F ABOVE-NORMAL BASED ON THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE ECENS
AND GEFS REFORECAST TOOLS ARE QUITE MODEST IN TERMS OF THE COLD. HOWEVER, THE
UNALIBRATED MODELS AND THE ANALOGS ARE MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH THE EXTENT OF
ENHANCED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES, WHICH ARE ALSO SUPPORTED
THROUGH THE TELECONNECTION WITH THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER ALASKA.
TIMING OF THE COLD IS DIFFICULT AS WELL, WITH THE UNCALIBRATED TOOLS SHOWING
THE SHARPEST DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD, WITH RELATIVELY WARMER CONDITIONS AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2. THE FORECAST
FAVORS LOW PROBABILITIES (30-50 PERCENT) FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
PERIOD AS A WHOLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, AND
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS INTO PARTS OF THE FOUR
CORNERS WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD MAY SKEW
THE PERIOD AVERAGE UPWARDS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE
INCREASED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS UNDERNEATH RIDGING.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED DOWNSTREAM OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
AS NOTED IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS TIED TO INCOMING TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. THIS
SUPPORTS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT,
FURTHER AIDED BY THE LOWER CLIMATOLOGY COMPARED TO FURTHER EAST. THE ARRIVAL OF
COLDER AIR ALSO RAISES THE CONCERN FOR WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
THANKSGIVING. ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS (EXCLUDING THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC COASTS WHERE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED) TIED TO AN
ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR FRONTAL WAVES TO
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. NEAR-TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
ENHANCED ACROSS THE WEST COAST INCLUDING OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AS THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGING OVER ALASKA FAVORS DECREASED ONSHORE FLOW. ELSEWHERE ACROSS ALASKA,
NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST GIVEN WEAK SIGNALS IN
THE REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED TOOLS. ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII AS A RESULT OF INCREASING TROUGHING TO
THE NORTH OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING A COLDER PATTERN TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
CONUS, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AT
THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 21 - 25 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 23 - 29 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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